With Estudiantes in dire straits, Fortaleza are favourites to make mincemeat of their hosts on Tuesday, with a dominant 3-1 triumph a possibility at Estadio Metropolitano to secure a fifth straight group stage triumph. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 23.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.51%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 1-0 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Fortaleza
23.68% ( -0.12)	25.04% ( -0.06)	51.28% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 50.34% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48% (

0.14)

52% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.26% (

0.12)

73.74% (

-0.11)

Estudiantes Merida Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.14% (

-0.04)

36.85% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.35% (

-0.04)

73.64% (

0.04)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.72% (

0.13)

20.28% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.36% (

0.21)

52.63% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Estudiantes Merida 23.68%

Fortaleza 51.27%

Draw 25.04%

Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Fortaleza
1-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.76% Total : 23.68%	1-1 @ 11.9% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0) Other @ 0.93% Total : 25.04%	0-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.51% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 5.06% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 5.05% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.67% Total : 51.27%