In the final round of fixtures in the Copa Libertadores group stage, Group H leaders Atletico Mineiro welcome basement side Deportivo La Guaira on Wednesday.
A strong group campaign has seen the hosts book their spot in the final 16, while their visitors stand an outside chance of falling into the Copa Sudamericana if they can secure a victory in the final game.
Match preview
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Atletico Mineiro lifted the Campeonato Mineiro trophy last time out, after a 0-0 draw in the second leg of the final at home to America MG.
That followed another 0-0 draw in the away leg, as Atletico Mineiro were handed the trophy thanks to their greater points tally over the course of the season.
That was a 46th State Championship for the Alvinegro, while they have also been more than impressive in this year's Copa Libertadores, booking their spot in the knockout stage with 13 points from their first five matches.
After a 1-1 draw away at Wednesday's opponents in the first game of the groups, Cuca's side have recorded four straight wins to confirm their finish at the top of the group.
That run included a 2-1 victory and a 3-1 win over America de Cali and a dominant 4-0 win over Cerro Porteno as well as their recent 1-0 victory.
The most recent clash looked set to end goalless until Keno netted the winner for Atletico Mineiro in the 92nd minute, taking their tally to an eye-catching 13 points from five games as a result.
While they have already sealed top spot, Cuca's men will look to continue their strong run of form to build momentum for their knockout campaign.
They take on a Deportivo La Guaira side who can no longer advance to the round of 16, but could move into the Copa Sudamerica group stage if they manage to leapfrog America de Cali on the final day.
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Having failed to win any of their five games so far, Daniel Farias's side find themselves at the foot of Group H, with a four-point gap between themselves and second-placed Cerro Porteno.
They looked to have had a solid start to the campaign, having drawn 1-1 with Atletico Mineiro on the opening day, before seeing out consecutive goalless draws with America de Cali and Cerro Porteno.
However, two straight defeats coming into Wednesday's match has seen them fall behind their group rivals, most recently falling to a 3-1 loss away against America de Cali.
Adrian Ramos opened the scoring for the hosts, but Charlis Ortiz quickly equalised for the Venezuelan outfit before Santiago Moreno restored America's lead and Ortiz added his second to condemn Farias's men to their second defeat of the group.
While they can no longer finish in the top two, a win on the final day and a draw or a defeat for America de Cali would see Los Naranjas move into third place, and qualify for the Copa Sudamericana as a result, giving them another chance of achieving continental success.
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Team News
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The Atletico Mineiro line could be led by the experienced Hulk, who will look to return to the side after he was dropped to the bench for the last Copa Libertadores game despite netting three goals in the previous two group matches.
Cuca made several other changes to his side for that game to ensure freshness for the Campeonato Mineiro final, but he should be able to field a full squad again on Wednesday.
That should see Keno and Jefferson Savarino return to the front three, either side of Hulk, while Tche Tche, Jair and Ignacio Fernandez could make up the midfield three.
Having netted just two goals in their five group games so far, Deportivo La Guiara are definitely struggling for attacking options, but Charlis Ortiz should continue to lead the line having found the net last time out.
Farias is expected to line up with the back three of Henry Pernia, Francisco La Mantia and Luis Martinez, shielding Carlos Olses between the sticks.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Guga, Rabello, Alonso, Arana; Jair, Neves, Fernandez; Keno, Hulk, Savarino
Deportivo La Guaira possible starting lineup:
Olses; Guzman, Martinez, La Mantia, Pernia, Cumana; Cure, Flores, Cermeno, Ocanto; Ortiz
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Deportivo La Guaira
The contrasting form of the two sides in the group stage only points to another win for Atletico Mineiro, and we see the hosts recording their fifth straight continental victory on Wednesday.
The Brazilian outfit have shown plenty of attacking threat, while their visitors have struggled in front of goal, and we see those trends continuing with a fairly comfortable win for Cuca's men.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 68.29%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Deportivo La Guaira had a probability of 8.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 21.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (17.38%) and 3-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.85%), while for a Deportivo La Guaira win it was 0-1 (5.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
