Locked together at the top of League C Group 1 with two games to play, Sweden and Slovakia will battle it out to take the outright lead when they meet on Saturday evening.
Both unbeaten so far, following a 2-2 draw in last month's reverse fixture, either side will secure automatic promotion by beating the other in Solna.
Match preview
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Competing in Europe's third tier for the first time, after suffering back-to-back relegations in previous Nations League campaigns, Sweden have proved to be a cut above most opponents so far.
With three wins from four and an average of nearly three goals per game, the Blagult's bid to win promotion back to League B is firmly on track, having added four points to their total in October.
Jon Dahl Tomasson's side had started by posting a 3-1 win in Azerbaijan and a 3-0 home victory over Estonia, with the latter secured by goals from top-class strike duo Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak.
However, last month, the Swedes' charge was temporarily halted by Slovakia, who fought back from two down to steal a point in Bratislava thanks to a David Strelec brace.
A subsequent 3-0 win in Estonia, where the prolific Gyokeres was on target again, left Sweden top of Group 1 due to their superior goal difference compared to Slovakia.
Therefore, they can afford to draw this weekend and still secure top spot by beating Azerbaijan on Tuesday, in the second of back-to-back home fixtures.
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Slovakia join Sweden on the 10-point mark after four matches, so they can also claim automatic promotion to League B with one game to spare by taking maximum points on Saturday.
That would ensure a better head-to-head record - which will be the determining factor in separating sides that have ended level on points - even if they then slipped up at home to Estonia.
Either way, at least a playoff place is already wrapped up, following two wins over Azerbaijan, victory against the Estonians and last month's draw with Sweden.
Like their closest rivals in Group 1, the Falcons seem ill-suited to League C, having recently reached the last 16 at Euro 2024, where they came within a whisker of beating England to make the quarter-finals.
Slovakia have won six and lost three of 12 games played so far this year, beating Belgium and Wales along the way, so a trip to Solna will hold few fears for Francesco Calzona's men.
Team News
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Jon Dahl Tomasson - himself an elite forward during his playing days, with Denmark and AC Milan - can call upon one of Europe's most potent attacking trios once again, with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres being supported by Dejan Kulusevski in the final third.
However, Nottingham Forest winger Anthony Elanga will not be joining them, having refused to answer Tomasson's calls since a disagreement during Sweden's October camp.
Furthermore, Hugo Larsson suffered an injury in Eintracht Frankfurt's most recent Bundesliga match and withdrew from the squad that gathered in Marbella on Monday. Emil Krafth and Hugo Bolin were also ruled out, so Tomasson drafted in Isac Lidberg, who has scored 10 goals in 12 games for Darmstadt this season and gets his first senior call-up.
Meanwhile, Slovakia can welcome back midfield metronome Stanislav Lobotka, albeit the Napoli man has just returned from a thigh problem and has yet to start a match.
Euro 2024 star Ivan Schranz is also back from injury but has played only 30 minutes in a Czech Cup tie since the start of September; Sparta Prague winger Lukas Haraslin and veteran midfielder Juraj Kucka are missing, though.
After featuring regularly in La Liga, Mallorca goalkeeper Dominik Greif has been selected for the first time in three years and will provide back-up to Marek Rodak and Martin Dubravka.
Sweden possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Lindelof, Hien, Gudmundsson; Eliasson, Karlstrom, Saletros, Sema; Kulusevski; Isak, Gyokeres
Slovakia possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Pekarik, Skriniar, Obert, Hancko; Duda, Lobotka, Benes; Suslov, Strelec, Schranz
We say: Sweden 3-2 Slovakia
Two attack-minded teams should share a few more goals this weekend, following their 2-2 draw in Slovakia last month, but Sweden are set to come out on top.
The hosts will simply have too much firepower for their visitors to handle - even if the Swedish defence still looks suspect.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
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