Looking to avoid consecutive defeats in Group J of the World Cup qualifiers, Madagascar take a trip to the Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium to face Tanzania on Tuesday.
The hosts will head into the game seeking to get one over the visitors after falling to a 2-0 defeat when they met in the COSAFA Cup back in July.
Match preview
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Tanzania were denied a third win on the trot last Tuesday when they played out a 1-1 draw against DR Congo in their group opener.
In a cagey affair at the Stade TP Mazembe, Dieumerci Mbokani's 23rd-minute strike gave the Leopards the lead 13 minutes before Simon Msuva restored parity to force a share of the spoils.
Prior to that, Tanzania picked up a 1-0 victory over Libya in their final Africa Cup of Nations group qualifying game back in March before cruising to a 2-0 friendly win over Malawi on June 13.
Despite the draw last time out, Kim Poulsen will be impressed by his side's performance against a significantly stronger nation and hope they can take the positives from the game.
However, next up is the uphill task of facing their East African counterparts, who they have failed to defeat in each of their last six attempts, losing three and picking up three draws.
Madagascar, on the other hand, suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Benin in their group curtain-raiser last Tuesday.
In a game where clear-cut chances were at a premium, Stade Brestois forward Steve Mounie came up trumps for the Squirrels as he scored the only goal of the contest midway through the first half.
Prior to that, Nicolas Dupuis's men finished third in Group K of the AFCON qualifiers after picking up two draws and losing two of their four outings.
Madagascar have now failed to taste victory in their last six games, a run dating back to November 2019, when they cruised to an emphatic 6-2 win over Niger in an AFCON qualifying tie.
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Team News
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Wydad Athletic Club forward Simon Msuva, who is fourth in Tanzania's all-time scoring chart, has scored in each of their two outings and we expect the 27-year-old to lead the attack once again.
Veteran defender Erasto Nyoni, who holds the nation's appearance record, could pair with Dickson Job at the heart of the defence, with Novatus Dismas and Feisal Salum operating at the centre of the park.
Meanwhile, Sedan forward Alexandre Ramalingon could be rewarded with a place in Madagascar's starting XI following his impressive 30-minute cameo against Benin.
The 28-year-old could be joined in attack by Hakim Abdallah and Loic Lapoussin to make up the attacking trio in Dupuis's preferred 4-3-3 formation.
Tanzania possible starting lineup:
Manula; Kapombe, Job, Nyoni, Husseini; Salum, Dismas; Mwakasugule, Yasin, Kibabage; Msuva
Madagascar possible starting lineup:
Melvin; Metanire, Razakanantenaina, Fontaine, Mombris; Amada, Abel, Raveloson; Lapoussin, Abdallah; Ramalingon
We say: Tanzania 2-1 Madagascar
Despite the draw in their group opener, Tanzania head into Tuesday's game in strong form. They face an out-of-sorts Madagascar side who are without a win in their last six outings in all competitions and we anticipate they will take advantage of the home crowd support and come away with all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Madagascar had a probability of 31.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Madagascar win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tanzania would win this match.
