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Sevilla logo
Champions League | Round of 16
Feb 17, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Dortmund logo

Sevilla
2 - 3
Dortmund

Suso (7'), de Jong (84')
Oscar (88'), Lopetegui (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Dahoud (19'), Braut Haaland (27', 43')
Hummels (73'), Braut Haaland (90+1')

Preview: Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Sevilla and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sevilla take on Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 knockout tie at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium on Wednesday evening.

The two clubs have not met since the group stage of the Europa League in the 2009-10 season, with both still looking to establish themselves at Europe's top table.


Match preview

Sevilla's Jules Kounde celebrates scoring against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey on February 10, 2021© Reuters

Sevilla have been in superb form of late, winning their last nine matches in all competitions and only conceding one goal during that entire timeframe.

After winning the Europa League for a record sixth time last season, Julen Lopetegui's primary objectives of progressing to the Champions League knockout stage and finishing in the top four of La Liga look firmly on course to being achieved.

Indeed, Saturday's 1-0 win over Huesca opened up a seven-point gap between themselves and fifth-placed Real Sociedad with a game in hand, so Lopetegui is free to direct every ounce of energy his players have into progressing past Dortmund.

Given their phenomenal collective defensive strength and the disarray Dortmund have found themselves in of late, Sevilla must fancy their chances of reaching the quarter-final of the Champions League for only the second time in their history.

Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho pictured on February 13, 2021© Reuters

Dortmund, of course, won this competition in 1997 and reached the final as recently as 2013, but their prospects of replicating either of those feats look remote at this point in time.

Transitional season is one of football's most over-used phrases, but it is certainly applicable to Dortmund after sacking Lucien Favre in December and temporarily replacing him with Edin Terzic. BVB are currently in a state of stasis, though it was confirmed on Monday that Marco Rose will take over in the summer.

Unlike Sevilla, too, their place in their domestic league's Champions League qualification places is anything but secure, with Saturday's 2-2 draw at home to Hoffenheim leaving them six points behind Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg in third and fourth place respectively.

However, it should not be forgotten than Dortmund topped their group while Sevilla did not, and in Erling Braut Haaland they have a player who can threaten any opposition on his day. The Norway striker has scored six goals in four matches in this season's competition and will be determined to prove his status as the most recent Golden Boy winner is a more than worthy one by scoring a crucial away goal for his side.

Sevilla Champions League form: DWWWLW
Sevilla form (all competitions): WWWWWW

Borussia Dortmund Champions League form: LWWWDW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): LLWWLD


Team News

Sevilla's Lucas Ocampos pictured in February 2020© Reuters

Sevilla will be without Jesus Navas, Lucas Ocampos and Marcos Acuna on Wednesday due to injury.

Youssef En-Nesyri, who was linked with a move to West Ham United in the recent January transfer window, will compete with Luuk De Jong for a place in attack.

Dortmund, meanwhile, will travel to Seville without Roman Burki, Thomas Meunier, Lukasz Piszczek, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Axel Witsel, Thorgan Hazard and Marcel Schmelzer due to injury.

Marwin Hitz and Emre Can are likely to continue in goal and at right-back respectively in the absence of Burki and Meunier, with 17-year-old England midfielder Jude Bellingham likely to start in midfield.

Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Bono; Vidal, Kounde, Carlos, Escudero; Fernando, Jordan, Rakitic; Suso, Gomez; En-Nesyri

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Can, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Bellingham, Delaney; Sancho, Reus, Reyna; Haaland


SM words green background

We say: Sevilla 1-0 Borussia Dortmund

We expect Sevilla to be too strong for Dortmund given the recently contrasting form of the two sides, with an eighth successive clean sheet in all competitions the priority for the hosts.

Should Dortmund manage to score an away goal, though, they will feel they have every chance of turning Lopetegui's side over back in Germany.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:435374:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect8813:
Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 51.92%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.57%) and 1-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Sevilla vs Dortmund

Sevilla
66.2%
Draw
13.2%
Borussia Dortmund
20.6%
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Jadon Sancho in action for Borussia Dortmund on February 2, 2021
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