Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Arouca in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
35.4% ( -0.31) | 26.71% ( 0.06) | 37.89% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 51.82% ( -0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.79% ( -0.25) | 53.2% ( 0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.23% ( -0.22) | 74.77% ( 0.22) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.26% ( -0.31) | 28.74% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -0.39) | 64.58% ( 0.39) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.73% ( 0.02) | 27.27% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.29% ( 0.03) | 62.7% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.64% Total : 35.4% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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