Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 41.12%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
32.26% ( 0.02) | 26.62% ( 0.01) | 41.12% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 51.43% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.59% ( -0.05) | 53.41% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.06% ( -0.05) | 74.94% ( 0.04) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.13% ( -0.01) | 30.87% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.84% ( -0.02) | 67.16% ( 0.02) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.4% ( -0.04) | 25.6% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.52% ( -0.06) | 60.48% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.44% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.26% | 1-1 @ 12.65% 0-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.34% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.33% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 2.37% Total : 41.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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