After ending their nine-game winning streak a couple of weeks ago, New York City FC, will try to win their first-ever regular-season series against the New England Revolution when they travel to Gillette Stadium to face them on Saturday afternoon.
This year, the Revs won the first meeting between these sides at Red Bull Arena, 3-2, while New York captured the second encounter at Yankee Stadium last month by a 2-0 score.
Match preview
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Anytime they suffer a minor setback, New England seem to be able to pick themselves back up and win, beating the Philadelphia Union 1-0 last Friday, becoming the first side in MLS this season to crack the 50-point plateau, currently sitting on 52 points after 24 games.
Manager Bruce Arena praised his side for working together to preserve their 1-0 lead after being reduced to 10-men in the 59th minute when Arnor Traustason was red-carded.
The camaraderie and work ethic of this team has been evident from the start of the 2021 campaign, and it is a big reason why the Revs are in a position to capture the Supporters' Shield for the very first time, currently leading the Seattle Sounders for that title by 10 points.
Navigating through an MLS regular season can be complicated, especially with players being called up to play World Cup qualifiers for their country, but despite all of that, Arena has done a great job of managing his roster with a different player seemingly stepping up to be the hero in every match.
With 10 games remaining in the regular season, it is a real possibility that New England could eclipse their record for points, needing just two more wins and two draw to beat the mark of 59, which would also topple the franchise record for wins in a regular season, which currently sits at 17, set back in 2005 and then matched again in 2014.
This team is averaging just over two points per game, leading the league in goals with 45, eight more than any other side in MLS at the moment and they have collected four clean sheets, so given how well they have played in all facets of the game, it would not be a surprise to see them break the points record of 72, set by Los Angeles FC in 2019.
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The Boys in Blue got the start they wanted against Nashville SC last week, but a pair of goals just two minutes apart in the 30th and 32nd minute seemed to knock the stuffing out of them.
That double blow appeared to turn the tide of the game in what was a real opportunity for Ronny Deila and his side to make a move in the Eastern Conference table.
A red card near the end of the half did not help their cause, and despite firing seven shots on target, New York could not find the back of the net until late in the match as they struggled to contain Hany Mukhtar, who caught the Pigeons backline napping with his opening goal.
Even though they have a very well-rounded roster across the board, a lot of the pressure of late has been placed squarely on the shoulders of striker Valentin Castellanos, who has scored the last six goals for this team in all competitions.
When they are able to take advantage of some early pressure, good things have happened for them, losing only three of their 11 games this season in which they have scored a first-half goal.
Their defeat in the music city was their sixth consecutive match without a win on the road this year, conceding five times in the second half over that stretch.
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Team News
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Matt Polster made his 100th MLS start last Friday, scoring the only goal in their victory against Philly, Brad Knighton collected his third shutout in six starts, as first-choice keeper Matt Turner was on international duty with the US national team in World Cup 2022 qualifying.
Carles Gil came on as a second-half substitute, his first action since July 31, while leading goalscorer Gustavo Bou sat out with a minor knock, though Arena said that he would be available for this game.
Their second-leading goalscorer Adam Buksa scored a hat-trick for Poland in a 7-1 win over San Marino in World Cup qualifying recently, while Tajon Buchanan helped Canada to a 3-0 win over El Salvador in CONCACAF qualifying on Wednesday and Traustason will be suspended for this game, so Luis Caicedo could make his return to the lineup from injury after being on the bench last week.
Maxi Moralez will not be available for the Pigeons after he was red-carded late in the first half against the Black-and-Gold and Jesus Medina is also out after getting another yellow card.
Goalkeeper Sean Johnson was called up to the US team following the positive COVID test from Zack Steffen, as the New York back stopper joined teammate James Sands for their game this week against Honduras, while Gudmundur Thorarinsson was with the Icelandic national team, Alexander Callens was representing Peru and Maxime Chanot was with Luxembourg.
Heber is still nursing a knee injury and midfielder Gedion Zelalem played just over 15 minutes for New York after returning from a difficult spell with a knee injury.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Knighton; Jones, Kessler, Farrell, Bye; Polster; Boateng, McNamara, Caicedo; Bou, Bunbury
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Barraza; Amundsen, Gray, Gloster, Tinnerholm; Parks, Rocha, Rodriguez, Tajouri-Shradi, Acevedo; Castellanos
We say: New England Revolution 2-1 New York City FC
The Revs are well ahead in the race to capture first place in the Eastern Conference as well as the Supporters' Shield, but they show no signs of letting up and with the potential of breaking more records this season, and we can expect to see their very best once again this weekend.
New York seem to struggle if they cannot find the back of the net early on, but even if they do on Saturday, the Revs are just as good playing from behind as they are when leading.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for New England Revolution in this match.
