Two of the top defensive units in Major League Soccer will face off at Allianz Field on Saturday as Minnesota United host the Chicago Fire.
Last weekend, the Loons' offence came to life, defeating the Colorado Rapids 3-1, while Chicago continue to be stingy defensively, playing to a 0-0 draw for the second time this month.
Match preview
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In the early stages of the MLS regular season, many have questioned the quality of this Minnesota side in attack, and understandably so after scoring a goal or fewer in each of their opening six encounters.
They came into their game versus the Burgundy Boys with the fifth-fewest scoring chances created domestically, following a dismal display at Austin FC in which Adrian Heath saw his team generate only 0.5 expected goals worth of opportunities, losing 1-0.
The Loons answered many of those questions in the final third last week, firing six efforts on target and scoring multiple goals in a match for the first time all season.
There is no doubt that performance was an encouraging sign for this group, who are back in a playoff position in the Western Conference, but maintaining consistency in the attack will be the next step.
As good as they were going forward against Colorado, the Loons are still relying heavily on their goalkeeper to bail them out, and his performances have made them look like a more robust defensive unit, conceding the joint third-fewest goals in the league (six).
After seven matches, Minnesota have allowed 35 shots on target, so there is room for improvement on the back end to relieve some of the pressure that they have invited into their third of the field.
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Ezra Hendrickson is unlikely to win over many neutral fans with his tactics since taking charge of the Fire, but you have to applaud how efficient that structure and formation has been.
On Saturday, his side were all over the Los Angeles Galaxy players, swarming the likes of Chicharito and company every time they touched the ball, holding LA goalless.
While it has been a nightmare to get through the Chicago defensive wall, there are still many shortcomings in the Fire attack, who have scored the fewest goals in the league thus far (five), failing to find the back of the net in three consecutive MLS games.
Their positionally sound play at the back is what all coaches love to see from their group, and after seven matches this season, we have seen a lot more cohesion from this team than we probably saw over the previous two campaigns.
In 2021, Chicago lost 13 away fixtures, conceding 36 goals in those encounters, which was as many as they scored in that entire regular season.
The Fire come into this contest on a sour note following their elimination from the U.S. Open Cup, falling 5-4 on penalties to Union Omaha after the match ended 2-2.
They have only conceded once on the road so far in this MLS campaign after three games, though Chicago are in danger of going goalless in four consecutive contests, which would be their longest stretch without scoring since September 2010, when they were shut out in four straight games.
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Team News
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After losing his starting job to Tyler Miller in the early stages of the 2021 season, Dayne St. Clair has regained his status as first-choice goalkeeper in Minnesota, as the Canadian is probably the main reason that they are in a playoff position, stopping seven shots against Colorado last weekend.
Robin Lod scored the winner and assisted on the insurance marker by substitute Abu Danladi, moving him into a tie for the team lead in goals alongside Luis Amarilla with two.
The Loons will still be missing Patrick Weah with a knee problem, Romain Metanire has a thigh injury, and Chase Gasper continues to seek treatment as part of the league's substance abuse rehab program.
Chicago keeper Gabriel Slonina collected his fifth clean sheet of the season last weekend, putting him in a tie with Pedro Gallese for the league lead.
Four of those shutouts have come when the back four consisted of Boris Sekulic, Wyatt Omsberg, Rafael Czichos and Miguel Navarro, who did not allow a single effort on target against the Galaxy.
Fabian Herbers remains questionable with a right hip problem, while Xherdan Shaqiri will hope that his left calf strain has healed by Saturday.
Stanislav Ivanov played 72 minutes for Chicago last weekend on his 23rd birthday, while Gaston Gimenez made his 50th appearance for the club since joining them in 2020.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Dotson, Boxall, Dibassy, Lawrence; Arriaga, Trapp; Lod, Reynoso, Hunou; Amarilla
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Sekulic, Omsberg, Czichos, M. Navarro; Duran, F. Navarro, Pineda, Reynolds II; Gimenez, Przybylko
We say: Minnesota United 1-0 Chicago Fire
Dayne St. Clair has earned the chance to have an easy match in goal as he has almost single-handedly kept Minnesota afloat this season, and we do not anticipate that he will have much to do against a passive Chicago side, who have rarely created much in possession.
Expect this to be a tight affair with a Fire squad who are tough to break down, while Minnesota have shown flashes of individual brilliance this year, which should be enough to earn them three points.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 53.99%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
