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Championship header 2

League Two
Northampton Town
League Two | Gameweek 22
Dec 20, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Sixfields
Carlisle United

Northampton
2 - 1
Carlisle

Sherring (53'), Appere (56')
Fox (45'), Burge (83'), McGowan (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Armer (50')
Whelan (41'), Armer (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Northampton Town and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Northampton 0-0 Tranmere
Saturday, December 3 at 3pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Carlisle 1-1 Sutton
Saturday, December 3 at 1pm in League Two

We said: Northampton Town 2-1 Carlisle United

 While both sides have proven difficult opponents to take points off in the league this season, Northampton Town's consistency of performance makes them one of the teams to beat in League Two. Carlisle have been strong performers away from home this season, however creation of meaningful opportunities has been a problem for Paul Simpson of late, and they may not have the attacking power to outscore their fellow promotion contenders. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Northampton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Northampton Town.

Result
Northampton TownDrawCarlisle United
47.29% (0.186 0.19) 24.81% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09) 27.9% (-0.099 -0.1)
Both teams to score 54.92% (0.212 0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.18% (0.314 0.31)47.82% (-0.316 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30% (0.289 0.29)70% (-0.291 -0.29)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.72% (0.20400000000001 0.2)20.27% (-0.206 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.37% (0.326 0.33)52.63% (-0.329 -0.33)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.89% (0.088999999999999 0.09)31.11% (-0.09 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.57% (0.105 0.11)67.43% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Northampton Town 47.28%
    Carlisle United 27.9%
    Draw 24.81%
Northampton TownDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 10.06% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-1 @ 9.38% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.03% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 4.99% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.27% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.91% (0.032 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.99% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.7% (0.021 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 47.28%
1-1 @ 11.75% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.31% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-2 @ 5.48% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.13% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 24.81%
0-1 @ 7.36% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-2 @ 6.86% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.3% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.67% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.015 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.67% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 27.9%

How you voted: Northampton vs Carlisle

Northampton Town
63.3%
Draw
30.0%
Carlisle United
6.7%
30
Head to Head
Mar 12, 2022 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Northampton
Sho-Silva (74'), Gibson (90+4' pen.)
Riley (80')
Lewis (79')
McWilliams (31'), Horsfall (56'), Pinnock (80')
Oct 30, 2021 2pm
Northampton
3-0
Carlisle
Lewis (41', 57', 67' pen.)

Armer (66'), Guy (82')
Mar 17, 2020 7.45pm
Northampton
P-P
Carlisle
Oct 22, 2019 7.45pm
Carlisle
0-2
Northampton
Pollock (51'), Hoskins (92')
Waters (58'), McWilliams (76')
Jan 12, 2019 3pm
Northampton
3-0
Carlisle
Bridge (48', 62'), Morias (72')
McWilliams (54')

Etuhu (32'), Hope (77')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall20134337191843
2Port Vale2110742619737
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster2110653124736
4Crewe AlexandraCrewe209832416835
5Chesterfield2197536231334
6AFC Wimbledon20103731171433
7Notts County208752821731
8Grimsby Town21101102833-531
9MK Dons199373326730
10Gillingham209382218430
11Salford City208662219330
12Bradford CityBradford207762422228
13Bromley206952523227
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham217682930-127
15BarrowBarrow207582018226
16Newport CountyNewport207582731-426
17Colchester UnitedColchester2041152322123
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood195862425-123
19Tranmere RoversTranmere205691529-1421
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2163121732-1521
21Swindon TownSwindon2147102635-919
22Accrington StanleyAccrington204792636-1019
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2036111532-1715
24Morecambe2135131938-1914
> League Two Full Table


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