Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 69.97%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Astana had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
0.07) 
-0.03) 
