Conference League | Group Stage
Sep 21, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszalka Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Legia3 - 2Aston Villa
The Match
Match Report
Tournament favourites Aston Villa suffer a shock 3-2 defeat to Legia Warsaw in the opening match of their Europa Conference League campaign.
Team News
Unai Emery makes five changes for Aston Villa's Europa Conference League fixture against Legia Warsaw on Thursday night.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Legia Warsaw and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia
Saturday, September 16 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Saturday, September 16 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Legia Warsaw | Draw | Aston Villa |
51.45% ( -0.1) | 22.21% ( 0) | 26.33% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 62.55% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
