Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Coventry City would win this match.