Atalanta BC will be looking to get back to winning ways and stay in the race for a top-four finish when they host Spezia in Serie A on Friday evening.
The visitors, meanwhile, have accumulated just two points from the last 12 available and have lost their previous two away matches by a 3-0 scoreline.
Match preview
© Reuters
Atalanta were unable to build on a convincing 5-1 victory against Crotone as they lost to league leaders Inter Milan 1-0 at the San Siro on Monday.
Milan Skriniar's second-half strike proved enough to separate the two sides and that result for La Dea has seen them drop outside of the top four and down to fifth, following Roma's victory against Genoa.
Aside from their last league fixture, Gian Piero Gasperini's side have shown their attacking prowess once again this campaign, scoring 60 Serie A goals so far this season – only bettered by Inter – and scoring at least three goals on 12 separate occasions – a record equalled only by Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich and Ligue 1 champions Paris Saint-Germain throughout the top five European leagues.
Atalanta have also scored at least three goals in each of their last four Serie A home meetings against promoted sides, their longest such run in the competition.
However, they were unable to break down Spezia when the two teams faced each other for the very first time in November, with that encounter finishing goalless. The last time La Dea failed to find the net in both games in the same season against a promoted side was back in the 2013-14 campaign, when they lost their two fixtures against Sassuolo by a 2-0 scoreline.
Victory by a four-goal margin on Friday would see Atalanta move above Juventus into third place on goal difference, although the Old Lady will have two games in hand.
© Reuters
Spezia's winless Serie A run was extended to four matches last weekend as they were unable to take advantage of Benevento's current woes, drawing 1-1 on home soil.
Daniele Verde's 71st-minute close-range effort rescued a point for the Aquilotti, who fell behind from an Adolfo Gaich strike just before the half-hour mark.
The result moved Spezia six points clear of the bottom three, although Torino – who currently occupy 18th place, just inside the relegation zone – still have two games in hand.
Spezia travel to Bergamo having previously turned up for the big occasion, already beating Roma, Napoli and most recently AC Milan this campaign.
However, they have lost three of their last four Serie A away matches, as many as they lost in their first nine in the top-flight earlier this season.
Head coach Vincenzo Italiano is aware that his side are not guaranteed safety just yet and claiming another huge scalp on Friday would give them a massive confidence boost heading into the final third of this campaign.
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Atalanta's key striker Duvan Zapata is doubtful for Friday's game after coming off early in the defeat to Inter, while wing-back Hans Hateboer remains out with an ankle injury.
Gasperini is set to name a strong side even though he will have one eye on their Champions League tie with Real Madrid next week.
Goalkeeper Marco Sportiello, who has started the last three matches, could keep his place in the starting lineup ahead of Pierluigi Gollini.
Spezia will be without Ivan Provedel (coronavirus), Rafael (wrist), Riccardo Saponara (muscle) and Federico Mattiello (fatigue) for the trip to Rome.
Dutch goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet is set to keep his place in the side, while Martin Erlic could replace Ardian Ismajli at centre-back.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Sportiello; Palomino, Romero, Djimsiti; Maehle, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Pessina, Malinovskyi; Muriel
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Zoet; Ferrer, Erlic, Terzi, Bastoni; Estevez, Agoume, Maggiore; Verde, Nzola, Gyasi
We say: Atalanta BC 3-0 Spezia
Even though Atalanta will have one eye on their Champions League last-16 second-leg tie against Real Madrid next Tuesday, Gasperini will be keen for his side to secure all three points on Friday and remain in the hunt for a top-four finish.
Spezia have accumulated more points on the road so far this season, but the hosts should have enough quality to claim another comfortable victory at the Gewiss Stadium.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 71.78%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 12.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 3-0 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.21%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
