Santos will look to take a huge step towards securing qualification to the Copa Libertadores knockout stage on Tuesday, when they travel to Bolivia to take on The Strongest.
A victory would see the Brazilian giants cement themselves in the top two going into the final round of group fixtures, while their hosts can still break into the top two or third place, which grants a spot in the Copa Sudamericana group stage, if they can pick up their form in the final two matches.
Match preview
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The Strongest recorded their first win of the group stage at the fourth time of asking last time out, as they defeated group leaders Barcelona SC, who came into this game having won all of the first three matches.
Jair Reinoso opened the scoring on the stroke of half time, before he netted his second of the game soon after the hour mark to double their lead and seal a 2-0 win to put their first points on the board.
That followed three consecutive defeats to begin the group stage, having failed to score in that time while conceding 10 goals.
Included in that run was a 5-0 defeat to Tuesday's opponents, as Marinho, Gabriel Pirani, Vinicius Balieiro, Lucas Braga and Kevin Malthus all got on the scoresheet in a dominant Santos win.
The Brazilian giants will look to repeat that feat on Tuesday, as they aim to take their tally to nine points from four group games.
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After a tough qualifying campaign with two aggregate victories to reach the Copa Libertadores, Ariel Holan's side got off to a poor start in the group stage with consecutive defeats from their first two matches.
That saw them lose 2-0 to both Barcelona SC and Argentinian giants Boca Juniors, but the thrashing of The Strongest seemed to pick up the Peixe, as they went on to follow that up with a crucial victory over Boca Juniors.
Felipe Jonatan netted the only goal of the game soon before half time to seal three crucial points and move the Brazilian outfit into the top two, ahead of Boca Juniors on goal difference.
As third-placed Boca Juniors take on first-placed Barcelona SC in this round of fixtures, Holan's men are almost guaranteed to remain in the top two of the group going into the final game if they can get past The Strongest again on Tuesday, as they look to book their place in the final 16.
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Team News
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The Strongest could look to deploy an unchanged side on Tuesday after an important victory over Barcelona SC last time out.
That should see Gonzalo Castillo, Luis Martelli and David Mateos line up in a back three, with Diego Wayar, Richet Gomez and Ramiro Vaca featuring in the midfield.
Jair Reinoso will lead the line with confidence after his brace to seal the 2-0 victory in their last group game.
Santos could remain without important winger Marinho, after he was absent from the squad for the Boca Juniors encounter following his goal in the comfortable victory over The Strongest.
While they have managed to find goals from all over the pitch, the Brazilian side have struggled for a prolific centre-forward, and Kaio Jorge could be deployed up front again on Tuesday with the main attacking threat coming from the likes of Lucas Braga and Gabriel Pirani playing off the striker.
At the other end of the pitch, Kaiky Fernandes and Luan Peres should again partner up at the heart of the back four, having kept consecutive clean sheets in the Copa Libertadores.
The Strongest possible starting lineup:
D Vaca; Torres, Castillo, Martelli, Mateos, Sagredo; Gomez, R Vaca, Wayar; Reinoso, Willie
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Para, Fernandes, Peres, Jonatan; Balieiro, Mota; Gabriel, Pirani, Braga; Jorge
We say: The Strongest 1-3 Santos
After The Strongest added a crucial victory last time out, this should be a much tighter encounter than the reverse fixture, but we are still seeing Santos having too much for the Bolivian outfit on Tuesday.
The Brazilian giants have bounced back well from a poor start to the group stage, and we see them recording another crucial victory to put them in pole position to reach the final 16.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The Strongest win with a probability of 37.51%. A win for Santos had a probability of 36.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a The Strongest win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The Strongest would win this match.
