Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 11

Oct 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
0 - 1
Napoli

Smalling (22'), Cristante (51'), Mourinho (58'), Ibanez (74')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Osimhen (80')
Lozano (45+3'), Ndombele (47'), Spalletti (74'), Olivera (78'), Lobotka (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Sampdoria 0-1 Roma
Monday, October 17 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Napoli

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Napoli 3-2 Bologna
Sunday, October 16 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

The last two matches in this southern derby have finished level, and that streak would reach three for the first time in 27 years if two contrasting sides cannot be separated at the Olimpico. However, Napoli's slicker passing and more clinical touch in the box could prove the factors which tip the balance in their favour. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Roma had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Napoli in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Napoli.

Result
Roma	Draw	Napoli
31.09% ( 0.19)	26.13% ( -0.08)	42.77% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 52.53% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.21% (

0.4)

51.79% (

-0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.44% (

0.35)

73.55% (

-0.35)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.15% (

0.34)

30.85% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.87% (

0.39)

67.13% (

-0.39)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.97% (

0.13)

24.03% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.71% (

0.18)

58.29% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Roma 31.09%

Napoli 42.77%

Draw 26.13%

Roma	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.03% Total : 31.09%	1-1 @ 12.43% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.41% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.13%	0-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.54% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 4.21% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 2.75% Total : 42.77%