Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 18

Dec 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

San Siro

AC Milan
0 - 1
Napoli

FT(HT: 0-1)

Elmas (5')
Di Lorenzo (33'), Malcuit (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

In what is sure to be an intensely-contested affair, a low-scoring draw could be the outcome, with both sides still diminished by injuries up front. Milan have won six from eight on home soil in Serie A this term, but Napoli have held the edge over them during recent years, and can use their counter-attacking pace and interplay to snatch a point. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Napoli
33.74%	24.87%	41.38%

Both teams to score 57.69%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.47%

45.53%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.14%

67.86%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.94%

26.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.9%

61.1%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.02%

21.98%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.72%

55.28%

Score Analysis

AC Milan 33.74%

Napoli 41.38%

Draw 24.87%

AC Milan	Draw	Napoli
2-1 @ 7.85% 1-0 @ 7.7% 2-0 @ 5.18% 3-1 @ 3.52% 3-2 @ 2.67% 3-0 @ 2.32% 4-1 @ 1.18% Other @ 3.33% Total : 33.74%	1-1 @ 11.67% 2-2 @ 5.94% 0-0 @ 5.73% 3-3 @ 1.35% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.87%	1-2 @ 8.84% 0-1 @ 8.68% 0-2 @ 6.57% 1-3 @ 4.46% 0-3 @ 3.32% 2-3 @ 3% 1-4 @ 1.69% 0-4 @ 1.26% 2-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.42% Total : 41.38%