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Milan logo
Serie A | Gameweek 18
Dec 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
San Siro
Napoli logo

AC Milan
0 - 1
Napoli

FT(HT: 0-1)
Elmas (5')
Di Lorenzo (33'), Malcuit (67')

Preview: AC Milan vs. Napoli - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After both clubs were recently toppled from the summit of Serie A, second-placed AC Milan and Napoli - who sit fourth - convene in a classic Calcio fixture at San Siro.

While Milan remain adrift of their city rivals despite Zlatan Ibrahimovic's late heroics last weekend, their southern counterparts have picked up just one point from their last three league matches amid an ongoing injury crisis.


Match preview

AC Milan's Zlatan Ibrahimovic celebrates scoring their second goal on September 12, 2021© Reuters

With a customary bicycle kick in stoppage time, Milan's ever-reliable talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic struck to salvage a point last time out for the Rossoneri, who looked set to fall to another disappointing defeat.

Losses against Fiorentina and Sassuolo in recent weeks - plus having their Champions League exit confirmed by a 2-1 reverse at Anfield - had stopped Stefano Pioli's men in their tracks, but the 1-1 draw with Udinese at least temporarily moved them two points clear at the top of the Serie A standings.

Though Inter's subsequent wins saw their old foes replace them at the top of the pile, Milan remain well placed as the season's halfway point approaches. There are two fixtures to fulfil before that stage is reached and the brief respite of the winter break can be enjoyed, so last season's runners-up must first take care of a couple of tricky customers.

Before visiting surprise package Empoli in their final game of a rollercoaster 2021 - during which they seemed to have the Scudetto in their grasp before meekly surrendering it to Inter, then started the current campaign in red-hot form - the Rossoneri tackle their bogey team on Sunday night.

Milan have won only one of their last 13 encounters with Napoli in the top flight, losing seven times in the process. Indeed, they have not beaten their fellow title contenders at San Siro since 2014, including a 1-0 loss there last March.

Nevertheless, having experienced a rare midweek away from the intensity of first-team action, Pioli and company - who were this week matched up with old boy Andriy Shevchenko and his Genoa side in next month's Coppa Italia third round - will be keen to capitalise by beating a faltering away side.

Napoli coach Luciano Spalletti gives instructions to his players on October 17, 2021© Reuters

Almost within the blink of an eye, it seems, Napoli have not only seen their long-held unbeaten start to the campaign torn up, but also find themselves back in the pack at the top end of the Serie A standings, where they now sit fourth.

After a stunning start to life at Stadio Maradona, lately Luciano Spalletti has been beset by a series of injuries to integral players, which has taken its toll on a thinly-staffed squad by comparison with Inter's.

The Partenopei's latest setback came last weekend, when they were beaten 1-0 by Empoli despite firing in a total of 30 shots on their plucky visitors' goal. Though split by a vital Europa League victory over Leicester City, which helped them progress to the next stage in Europe, that means that Napoli have lost both of their last two domestic games, having previously taken nothing from an enthralling encounter with Atalanta.

In fact, since the beginning of November, the Campanian outfit have picked up just five league points - placing them 16th in the table for that period - which gives Spalletti cause for serious concern.

Before the second half of the campaign kicks off in the new year - when they will go on to meet Barcelona in the Europa League and Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia - Napoli will seek to get back on track with a positive return from Sunday's clash and the subsequent visit of struggling Spezia.

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

Napoli Serie A form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L

Napoli form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

AC Milan coach Stefano Pioli on October 23, 2021© Reuters

After becoming just the third man since the turn of the century to net 300 goals in Europe's top five leagues last weekend, the tireless Zlatan Ibrahimovic could be called upon once more by Stefano Pioli, whose other striking options are thin on the ground.

Milan currently have Ante Rebic, Rafael Leao and Pietro Pellegri sidelined, but Olivier Giroud recently returned to training and should start on the bench.

Simon Kjaer will be missing for several months following reconstructive ACL surgery, so Fikayo Tomori continues to partner Alessio Romagnoli at the heart of the back four. Pioli is expected to bolster his defensive options next month, when he could potentially recall on-loan Mattia Caldara from Venezia as cover.

Meanwhile, Napoli's injury problems show few signs of abating, as Lorenzo Insigne, Fabian Ruiz and Kalidou Koulibaly have all been undergoing individual training programmes and are unlikely to feature this weekend.

The Azzurri also have top scorer Victor Osimhen out of action until 2022 due to a cheekbone injury, but Stanislav Lobotka was able to undertake full training over the past few days and will be available to Luciano Spalletti.

Piotr Zielinski is also poised to be passed fit after suffering from respiratory problems during last week's match, but Kostas Manolas will not play for the club again having agreed a return to Greece with Olympiakos.

Without Koulibaly and Manolas, Amir Rrahmani will join Juan Jesus in central defence, while Dries Mertens deputises for Osimhen up front.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Florenzi, Tomori, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Messias; Ibrahimovic

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Malcuit, Rrahmani, Jesus, Di Lorenzo; Demme, Anguissa; Politano, Zielinski, Lozano; Mertens


SM words green background

We say: AC Milan 1-1 Napoli

In what is sure to be an intensely-contested affair, a low-scoring draw could be the outcome, with both sides still diminished by injuries up front.

Milan have won six from eight on home soil in Serie A this term, but Napoli have held the edge over them during recent years, and can use their counter-attacking pace and interplay to snatch a point.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AC Milan vs Napoli

AC Milan
55.4%
Draw
25.2%
Napoli
19.3%
202
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14Como122461323-1010
15Genoa12246922-1310
16CagliariCagliari11236919-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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