The San Jose Earthquakes will look to put an end to their two-game losing streak on Saturday as they wrap up their three-game homestand when they host Sporting Kansas City from PayPal Park.
The Quakes have dropped into fifth place in the Western Conference after losing 2-0 to the Portland Timbers, while KC blanked the Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0 last Sunday.
Match preview
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In their opening four games of this campaign, Matias Almeyda and his side looked like an offensive juggernaut, scoring nine goals and winning three games.
On their current homestand, they have learned the hard way about the importance of staying sharp and not sitting back, especially when facing the top teams in the league.
Despite firing 20 shots in their past two matches against the Seattle Sounders and the Timbers, the Quakes have failed to score and have rarely looked as threatening as they did in their opening four fixtures.
Veteran striker Chris Wondolowski had an opportunity to change the outcome of their match last Saturday, but Timbers keeper Logan Ketterer did well to stop his penalty kick.
Saturday will be another stiff test for this team against a Kansas City side that are versatile and can beat you in various ways.
If San Jose fail to score again this weekend, there will be plenty of questions about how good this team is, especially since they have not gone scoreless in three straight regular-season games since 2018.
Last Sunday was much more like the Sporting Kansas City that we are used to seeing, as they defeated the Whitecaps comprehensively 3-0, in what was probably their most complete performance of the season.
Manager Peter Vermes saw his team dominate Vancouver, firing seven shots on target and completing 91.4% of their passes.
Scoring three goals against a team that heading into Sunday had conceded fewer than a goal a game on average will give Vermes's side a lot of confidence moving forward.
The win moved KC into a tie for third in the Western Conference with 10 points, just two behind the LA Galaxy in the standings.
KC have not won away from home since their opening match of the season, and they will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss to San Jose in their last visit to PayPal Park in 2019.
This team has usually bounced back after losing on the road, as they did not lose back-to-back games away from home in the 2020 regular season.
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Team News
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San Jose goalkeeper JT Marcinkowski has let in half of the shots that he has faced in his last two games, conceding three goals off six shots against the Sounders and Timbers.
Chris Wondolowski enjoys playing KC, having scored 10 goals against them in his career with the Quakes, including the lone strike in a 2-1 defeat in their last meeting in 2019.
Goalkeeper Brooks Thompson is the only player unavailable for Peter Vermes, as he continues to battle back problems.
Tim Melia picked up his first shutout of the season on Sunday, while the investment in striker Alan Pulido appears to be paying off as the record signing for the Wizards now has three goals to lead the team.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Abecasis, Beason, Alanis, Marie; Yueill, Remedi; C. Espinoza, Rios, Salinas; Cowell
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Lindsey, llie, Fontas, Martins; R. Espinoza, Busio, Walter; Shelton, Pulido, Salloi
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 Sporting Kansas City
Scoring goals came easily to the Quakes in their first four matches, but on their current homestand, the elite teams have shown them just how far they still have to go to become a contending team.
San Jose may have to go through some more growing pains against more solid sides like Kansas City before taking that next step.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.33%) and 2-0 (5.86%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
