Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.4%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.2%) and 3-0 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
75.4% ( 0.15) | 15.9% ( -0.08) | 8.7% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 44.54% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.95% ( 0.21) | 41.05% ( -0.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.56% ( 0.21) | 63.44% ( -0.2) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.77% ( 0.09) | 9.23% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.77% ( 0.21) | 31.23% ( -0.2) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.07% ( 0.01) | 50.93% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.71% ( 0.01) | 85.29% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
2-0 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 75.39% | 1-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.9% | 0-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.9% Total : 8.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 25 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
5 | Braga | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 20 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Casa Pia | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
13 | AVS | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
16 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 |
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