Two teams who squandered early leads in their previous match continue to search for their first victory in the final round of World Cup 2022 qualifying, as Honduras host Costa Rica on Thursday from Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano.
The Hondurans conceded four second-half goals, losing 4-1 to the USA in their last game, while Los Ticos drew 1-1 at home to Jamaica.
Match preview
© Reuters
They have gotten off to some solid starts, but in their first three games in this CONCACAF qualifying round, Los Catrachos have struggled to maintain that momentum for 90 minutes.
Fabian Coito has seen his side come out very determined, but they have not had an answer when they get that push from their opponents.
Since their second game at the Gold Cup this past summer, this group of veterans have struggled to keep pace with some of the more youthful sides in the region, conceding 12 goals in their last six games in all competitions.
There is a wealth of experience on this side, who know what it takes to make the finals, having qualified in 2010 and 2014, with over 300 caps between two players alone. However, their creativity on the field has been lacking to this point of the campaign.
For a group of players who have been together for so long at the international level, it is surprising to see them struggle to make the simple plays, clicking at a pass accuracy no higher than 76% in any one of their three matches thus far.
Last month, their defeat to the US was the first time that they had lost a match in their home stadium since falling to Panama 1-0 in a qualifying fixture in 2016.
© Reuters
If there is a side in CONCACAF at this competition who can rival Honduras in terms of experience, it would be Costa Rica, who have three players on their current roster with at least 100 appearances for the national team.
Luis Fernando Suarez, who led the Hondurans to the World Cup in 2014, has found it challenging to get his new team going offensively, as they have only scored once in their last five fixtures dating back to their Gold Cup quarter-final defeat to Canada.
They found the mark early versus the Reggae Boyz, scoring in the third minute, but rarely looked threatening after that, with most of their shots coming from outside the 18-yard box.
That goal ended a run of four straight games without one in all competitions, and a goal on Thursday would be their first as the visiting team since beating Suriname 2-1 in their second match at the Gold Cup.
They were only able to generate one shot on target in each of their opening two fixtures this round, though they have put at least one past Honduras in each of their last five matches against them, going back to 2017.
Los Ticos have never qualified for three consecutive World Cup finals, though they came close to accomplishing that feat in their 2010 campaign, losing out on goal difference in the final CONCACAF round, before eventually being eliminated by Uruguay in the inter-confederation playoffs 2-1 on aggregate.
- D
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Brayan Moya scored his first goal of this qualifying round in their last match versus the US, only his second for the national team.
Edwin Rodriguez and Alberth Elis each had a goal in their previous meeting versus Los Ticos in the third-place game at the CONCACAF Nations League earlier this year, which went to penalties, where goalkeeper Luis Lopez saved the last shot from Yeltsin Tejeda, allowing Ever Alvarado to fire home the winner.
Midfielder Boniek Garcia needs two more caps to move into a tie for third all-time for the national team, with Noel Valladares at 135, while captain Maynor Figueroa is still comfortably positioned in that number one spot for his country with 174 appearances.
Joel Campbell and Francisco Calvo, two veterans on the Costa Rican squad, were the only goalscorers in their Nations League defeat on penalties to Honduras.
Their skipper Bryan Ruiz needs just two more caps to move into a tie for second on the all-time list with Walter Centeno, while Ruiz's teammate Celso Borges is currently in first with 141 appearances.
Goalkeeper Keylor Navas needs four more caps to reach 100 for his country, while Kenneth Vargas and Fernan Faerron have yet to feature for the Costa Ricans.
Honduras possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Najar, Pereira, Figueroa, Leveron; Pineda, Arriaga, Acosta, Flores; Rivas, Elis
Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Navas; Blanco, Duarte, Calvo, Oviedo; Leal, Borges, Lassiter, Ruiz; Campbell, Moya
We say: Honduras 1-1 Costa Rica
These may be the two most experienced sides remaining in CONCACAF qualifying, but it has not served either of them all that well as they both look rather ordinary and unable to find a lot of attacking solutions.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Costa Rica win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Honduras win was 1-0 (11.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
