Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 19, 2023 at 5pm UK

Friends Arena

Sweden
2 - 0
Estonia

Claesson (22'), Forsberg (55')
Helander (72')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Kuusk (69'), Poom (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Sweden and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sweden

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Azerbaijan 3-0 Sweden
Thursday, November 16 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	8	10	19
2	Belgium	7	13	17
3	Sweden	7	0	7
4	Azerbaijan	7	-5	7
5	Estonia	7	-18	1

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Estonia 0-2 Austria
Thursday, November 16 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	8	10	19
2	Belgium	7	13	17
3	Sweden	7	0	7
4	Azerbaijan	7	-5	7
5	Estonia	7	-18	1

Determined to finish off an awful qualifying campaign by sending Janne Andersson on his way with a win, Sweden should complete a double over Estonia, who are destined to finish rock-bottom of Group F. An overhaul will be needed in the months ahead, but the Blagult still have enough ability to put one of Europe's weakest sides to the sword. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 71.97%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 10.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.68%) and 3-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.19%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sweden in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sweden.

Result
Sweden	Draw	Estonia
71.97% ( -0.04)	17.25% ( 0.05)	10.78% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 48.21% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.25% (

-0.26)

40.75% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.86% (

-0.27)

63.13% (

0.27)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.01% (

-0.08)

9.98% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.01% (

-0.18)

32.99% (

0.18)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.55% (

-0.19)

46.44% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.93% (

-0.15)

82.06% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Sweden 71.97%

Estonia 10.78%

Draw 17.25%

Sweden	Draw	Estonia
2-0 @ 12.31% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.18% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.42% Total : 71.97%	1-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.8% Total : 17.25%	0-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.36% ( 0) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 10.78%