Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Roi Baudouin

Belgium
5 - 0
Estonia

Vertonghen (4'), Trossard (18'), Lukaku (56', 58'), De Ketelaere (88')
De Ketelaere (70')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Mets (41')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Belgium and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Azerbaijan 0-1 Belgium
Saturday, September 9 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	4	7	10
2	Austria	4	6	10
3	Sweden	4	5	6
4	Estonia	4	-9	1
5	Azerbaijan	4	-9	1

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Estonia 0-5 Sweden
Saturday, September 9 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	4	7	10
2	Austria	4	6	10
3	Sweden	4	5	6
4	Estonia	4	-9	1
5	Azerbaijan	4	-9	1

Victory is surely inevitable for a Belgium side still boasting plenty of talent in spite of recent retirements and injuries. As Estonia were walloped at the weekend, they will seek to keep the scoreline down in Brussels; but when space opens up as the game wears on, the Red Devils can take full advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 63.92%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 15.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
Belgium	Draw	Estonia
63.92% ( -0.13)	20.86% ( 0.08)	15.21% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 49.13% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.61% (

-0.28)

46.39% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.33% (

-0.27)

68.67% (

0.27)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.19% (

-0.13)

13.81% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.84% (

-0.25)

41.16% (

0.25)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.01% (

-0.12)

42.99% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.72% (

-0.1)

79.28% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Belgium 63.91%

Estonia 15.21%

Draw 20.86%

Belgium	Draw	Estonia
1-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 11.63% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.68% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 63.91%	1-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.86% Total : 20.86%	0-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.19% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 15.21%