Europa Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 13, 2023 at 8pm UK
INEA Stadion
Lech Poznan1 - 4Fiorentina
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Djurgarden 0-3 Lech Poznan
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia
Saturday, April 8 at 1.30pm in Serie A
Saturday, April 8 at 1.30pm in Serie A
We said: Lech Poznan 1-2 Fiorentina
Both teams have enjoyed strong runs of form both domestically and in Europe in recent months and will be confident of picking up a valuable first-leg win on Thursday. However, Fiorentina will be regarded as the favourite to come out on top and should have enough quality to edge past their Polish counterparts. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 1-0 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
Result | ||
Lech Poznan | Draw | Fiorentina |
28.8% ( -0.13) | 27.11% ( 0.01) | 44.1% ( 0.12) |
Both teams to score 48.47% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.51% ( -0.08) | 56.49% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.52% ( -0.06) | 77.49% ( 0.06) |
Lech Poznan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.02% ( -0.14) | 34.98% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.28% ( -0.15) | 71.73% ( 0.15) |
Fiorentina Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.54% ( 0.03) | 25.46% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.71% ( 0.04) | 60.29% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Lech Poznan 28.8%
Fiorentina 44.09%
Draw 27.1%
Lech Poznan | Draw | Fiorentina |
1-0 @ 9.35% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.91% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.13% Total : 28.8% | 1-1 @ 12.79% 0-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.1% | 0-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.34% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.99% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 44.09% |
How you voted: Lech Poznan vs Fiorentina
Lech Poznan
16.4%Draw
9.4%Fiorentina
74.2%128
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-26 08:20:37
Wednesday, June 26
5pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Romania
5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Group Stage
Czech Republic
vs.
Turkey
8pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Portugal
Saturday, June 29
5pm
Round of 16
Switzerland
vs.
Italy
8pm
Round of 16
Germany
vs.
Denmark
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
England
vs.
3rd Group D/E/F
8pm
Round of 16
Spain
vs.
3rd Group A/D/E/F
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
France
vs.
2nd Group E
8pm
Round of 16
Portugal
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group E
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C/D
8pm
Round of 16
Austria
vs.
2nd Group F
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Tuesday, July 9
8pm
Wednesday, July 10
8pm
Sunday, July 14
8pm
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
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