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Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 13, 2023 at 8pm UK
INEA Stadion
Fiorentina logo

Lech Poznan
1 - 4
Fiorentina

Velde (20')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Cabral (4'), Gonzalez (41'), Bonaventura (58'), Ikone (63')
Ranieri (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Lech Poznan and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lech Poznan

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Last Game: Djurgarden 0-3 Lech Poznan
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Fiorentina

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia
Saturday, April 8 at 1.30pm in Serie A

We said: Lech Poznan 1-2 Fiorentina

 Both teams have enjoyed strong runs of form both domestically and in Europe in recent months and will be confident of picking up a valuable first-leg win on Thursday. However, Fiorentina will be regarded as the favourite to come out on top and should have enough quality to edge past their Polish counterparts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 1-0 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Lech PoznanDrawFiorentina
28.8% (-0.129 -0.13) 27.11% (0.0080000000000027 0.01) 44.1% (0.124 0.12)
Both teams to score 48.47% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.51% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)56.49% (0.080999999999996 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.52% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)77.49% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.02% (-0.14 -0.14)34.98% (0.144 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.28% (-0.147 -0.15)71.73% (0.152 0.15)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.54% (0.030000000000001 0.03)25.46% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.71% (0.037999999999997 0.04)60.29% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Lech Poznan 28.8%
    Fiorentina 44.09%
    Draw 27.1%
Lech PoznanDrawFiorentina
1-0 @ 9.35% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-1 @ 6.72% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-0 @ 4.91% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.35% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.72% (-0.015 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.61% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 28.8%
1-1 @ 12.79%
0-0 @ 8.91% (0.028 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.6% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.1%
0-1 @ 12.18% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
1-2 @ 8.76% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.34% (0.038 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.99% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.8% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.37% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.3% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 44.09%

How you voted: Lech Poznan vs Fiorentina

Lech Poznan
16.4%
Draw
9.4%
Fiorentina
74.2%
128
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2015 8.05pm
Group I
Lech Poznan
0-2
Fiorentina

Linetty (26')
Ilicic (42', 83')
Oct 22, 2015 6pm
Group I
Fiorentina
1-2
Lech Poznan
Rossi (90')
Rebic (91')
Kownacki (65'), Gajos (82')
Lovrencsics (71'), Tralka (92')
rhs 2.0
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