UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg

May 18, 2023 at 8pm UK

St. Jakob-Park

Basel
1 - 3
Fiorentina

(Fiorentina win 4-3 on aggregate)

Amdouni (55')
Burger (90')

FT
(aet)

Gonzalez (35', 72'), Barak (120+9')
Julio (21'), Ranieri (59'), Gonzalez (89'), Ikone (95'), Italiano (98'), Bonaventura (104'), Barak (120+10')

The Match

Match Report

Fiorentina score with almost the last kick of extra time to defeat Basel 3-1 (4-3 on aggregate) and set up a Europa Conference League final against West Ham United.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Basel and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Basel

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: St Gallen 6-1 Basel
Sunday, May 14 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-0 Udinese
Sunday, May 14 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Basel had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Basel win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%).

Result
Basel	Draw	Fiorentina
28.5% ( 0.85)	24.12% ( -0.07)	47.38% ( -0.78)

Both teams to score 57.66% (

0.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.58% (

0.86)

44.42% (

-0.86)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.21% (

0.83)

66.79% (

-0.83)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.08% (

1.06)

28.92% (

-1.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.2% (

1.29)

64.8% (

-1.29)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.12% (

0.02)

18.88% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.64% (

0.04)

50.36% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Basel 28.5%

Fiorentina 47.38%

Draw 24.12%

Basel	Draw	Fiorentina
2-1 @ 7.01% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.47% Total : 28.5%	1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.46% ( -0.21) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.12%	1-2 @ 9.41% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.34) 0-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.27) 1-3 @ 5.23% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 3.25% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.3% Total : 47.38%