Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 34

May 7, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stadio San Paolo, Napoli

Napoli
1 - 0
Fiorentina

Osimhen (74' pen.)

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Udinese 1-1 Napoli
Thursday, May 4 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Salernitana 3-3 Fiorentina
Wednesday, May 3 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Napoli 1-1 Fiorentina

For all the joyous release of the last few days, Napoli have been off the boil for a while now, while Fiorentina may have their minds on other matters. With all the action occurring in the Stadio Maradona stands, it could be a more meandering affair on the field of play; ending in a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 46.64%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Napoli in this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
46.64% ( -0.03)	24.92% ( 0.07)	28.43% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 54.94% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.03% (

-0.32)

47.97% (

0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.85% (

-0.29)

70.14% (

0.3)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.39% (

-0.14)

20.61% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.83% (

-0.23)

53.16% (

0.23)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.21% (

-0.19)

30.79% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.94% (

-0.22)

67.06% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Napoli 46.64%

Fiorentina 28.43%

Draw 24.92%

Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 10.02% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.17% 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 46.64%	1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.92%	0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( -0) Other @ 2.99% Total : 28.43%