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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 48.74%. A win for Watford had a probability of 26.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
Result | ||
Norwich City | Draw | Watford |
48.74% ( 0.03) | 24.82% ( -0.03) | 26.44% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 53.71% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.14% ( 0.14) | 48.86% ( -0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.04% ( 0.13) | 70.96% ( -0.12) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.92% ( 0.07) | 20.08% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.68% ( 0.11) | 52.32% ( -0.1) |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.21% ( 0.08) | 32.79% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.64% ( 0.09) | 69.35% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Norwich City | Draw | Watford |
1-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.54% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.81% Total : 48.74% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.34% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.09% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0) Other @ 2.51% Total : 26.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Sunderland | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
3 | Burnley | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
4 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
5 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
6 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
7 | Swansea CitySwansea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
8 | Watford | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
9 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Derby CountyDerby | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
12 | Middlesbrough | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
13 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
14 | Bristol City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
17 | Hull City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
19 | Millwall | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 |
20 | Coventry CityCoventry | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
21 | Preston North EndPreston | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
22 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
23 | Portsmouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
24 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 |
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