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FA Cup
Southampton logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays
Feb 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Watford logo

Southampton
3 - 0
Watford

Mara (52', 58'), Adams (76')
Smallbone (21'), Obling (51'), Edozie (86'), Armstrong (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Morris (46'), Chakvetadze (49'), Porteous (69'), Sierralta (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Rotherham 0-2 Southampton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship

Watford

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Watford 0-1 Cardiff
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 3-1 Watford

 Southampton have home advantage in this winner-takes-all clash, and they should be confident of extending their unbeaten run to 24 matches on Tuesday night. Watford have a number of attacking players who could cause damage on the South Coast, but we believe that the Hornets' FA Cup journey ends here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 57.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 20.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
SouthamptonDrawWatford
57.92% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01) 21.9% (0.0019999999999989 0) 20.18% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Both teams to score 55.61% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.3%42.7% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.9% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)65.1%
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)14.47% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.55% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)42.45% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.02% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)34.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.28% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)71.72% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 57.92%
    Watford 20.18%
    Draw 21.89%
SouthamptonDrawWatford
2-1 @ 9.93%
1-0 @ 9.79% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 9.46% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.4% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 6.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.36%
4-1 @ 3.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.94% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.62%
5-1 @ 1.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.14% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 57.92%
1-1 @ 10.27%
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 5.06%
3-3 @ 1.18% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 5.4% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 5.32% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 2.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 1.89% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.83% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 20.18%

How you voted: Southampton vs Watford

Southampton
81.5%
Draw
10.2%
Watford
8.3%
157
Head to Head
Jan 28, 2024 2pm
Fourth Round
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Martins (5')
Chakvetadze (45')
Armstrong (89')
Holgate (4'), Alcaraz (40')
> Preview
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 20
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Healey (90+6')
Porteous (59'), Kone (61'), Hoedt (87')
Adams (56')
Charles (34'), Armstrong (45'), Armstrong (87'), Fraser (90+3')
> Preview
Jul 23, 2022 3pm
Club Friendlies
Watford
0-0
Southampton
> Preview
Mar 13, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 29
Southampton
1-2
Watford
Elyounoussi (45')
Perraud (48'), Romeu (65'), Bednarek (76')
Camilo Hernandez (14', 34')
Camilo Hernandez (60'), Sissoko (86')
> Preview
Oct 30, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 10
Watford
0-1
Southampton

Pedro (45+2'), Kucka (76')
Adams (20')
Salisu (55'), Ward-Prowse (58')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool16123137162139
2Chelsea17105237191835
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Bournemouth178452721628
6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
9Fulham176742422225
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1772839251423
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
17Leicester CityLeicester173592137-1614
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1733112740-1312
19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256
> Premier League Full Table


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