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FA Cup
Watford logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK
Vicarage Road
Chesterfield

Watford
2 - 1
Chesterfield

Rajovic (76'), Dele-Bashiru (90+5')
Kone (38'), Hoedt (45+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Quigley (28')
Quigley (26'), Cook (27'), Banks (45+1'), Naylor (52'), Boot (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Watford and Chesterfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions
Last Game: Plymouth 3-3 Watford
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Chesterfield

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Chesterfield 3-2 Solihull
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in National League

We said: Watford 3-0 Chesterfield

 While this is something of a free hit for Chesterfield, they will also want to do themselves justice. Nevertheless, facing Watford on away territory is a big step up, and we anticipate that the Hornets will come through with a comfortable win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 54.07%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Watford.

Result
WatfordDrawChesterfield
54.07% (0.057000000000002 0.06) 22.1% (0.010000000000002 0.01) 23.82% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Both teams to score 60.14% (-0.145 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.9% (-0.14899999999999 -0.15)39.1% (0.143 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.57% (-0.157 -0.16)61.42% (0.151 0.15)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.51% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)14.49% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.52% (-0.064 -0.06)42.47% (0.058 0.06)
Chesterfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.33% (-0.142 -0.14)29.66% (0.137 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.29% (-0.172 -0.17)65.7% (0.166 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Watford 54.07%
    Chesterfield 23.82%
    Draw 22.09%
WatfordDrawChesterfield
2-1 @ 9.75% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.3% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 8.02% (0.036 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.28% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.81% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 2.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.84% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.17% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
5-0 @ 0.96% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 54.07%
1-1 @ 10.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.029 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.55% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 22.09%
1-2 @ 6.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.22% (0.016 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.17% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.48% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.4% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.29% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 23.82%

How you voted: Watford vs Chesterfield

Watford
63.6%
Draw
11.4%
Chesterfield
25.0%
44
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool16123137162139
2Chelsea17105237191835
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Bournemouth178452721628
6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
9Fulham176742422225
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1772839251423
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
17Leicester CityLeicester173592137-1614
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1733112740-1312
19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256
> Premier League Full Table


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