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FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Walsall

Southampton
4 - 0
Walsall

Fraser (6', 68'), Mara (58'), Adams (78')
Amo-Ameyaw (45+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Walsall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
Last Game: Norwich 1-1 Southampton
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Walsall

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Grimsby Town 1-6 Walsall
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Southampton 3-1 Walsall

 Both sides have bigger promotion fish to fry in the coming months, but if the visitors' recent offensive exploits are anything to go by, Walsall ought to give an injury-hit Southampton a scare or two. However, Sadler's side have been decimated by fitness concerns of their own, and even if Saints boss Martin rings the changes, the in-form hosts should prove too strong for their League Two counterparts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Walsall had a probability of 17.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.54%) and 1-0 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Walsall win it was 1-2 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
SouthamptonDrawWalsall
63.31% (-0.438 -0.44) 19.08% (0.193 0.19) 17.61% (0.24 0.24)
Both teams to score 60.97% (-0.233 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.51% (-0.51900000000001 -0.52)33.49% (0.515 0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.72% (-0.596 -0.6)55.28% (0.59 0.59)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.88% (-0.25700000000001 -0.26)10.12% (0.252 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.7% (-0.584 -0.58)33.29% (0.579 0.58)
Walsall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.84% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)32.16% (0.061 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.35% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)68.65% (0.070000000000007 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 63.31%
    Walsall 17.61%
    Draw 19.08%
SouthamptonDrawWalsall
2-1 @ 9.69% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 8.54% (0.045 0.04)
1-0 @ 7.45% (0.119 0.12)
3-1 @ 7.4% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-0 @ 6.52% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-1 @ 4.24% (-0.078 -0.08)
3-2 @ 4.2% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-0 @ 3.74% (-0.062 -0.06)
4-2 @ 2.4% (-0.049 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.94% (-0.058 -0.06)
5-0 @ 1.71% (-0.048 -0.05)
5-2 @ 1.1% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-3 @ 0.91% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 63.31%
1-1 @ 8.46% (0.122 0.12)
2-2 @ 5.49% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.25% (0.086 0.09)
3-3 @ 1.59% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 19.08%
1-2 @ 4.8% (0.061 0.06)
0-1 @ 3.69% (0.093 0.09)
0-2 @ 2.09% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.08%
1-3 @ 1.81% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 17.61%

How you voted: Southampton vs Walsall

Southampton
83.3%
Draw
7.1%
Walsall
9.5%
42
Head to Head
May 7, 2011 3pm
Southampton
3-1
Walsall
Connolly (29'), Oxlade-Chamberlain (68')
Jaidi (69')
Gray (45')
Richards (70'), Gray (78')
Mar 1, 2011 3pm
Walsall
1-0
Southampton
Macken (69')

Chaplow (45'), Hammond (90')
Feb 27, 2010 3pm
Southampton
5-1
Walsall
Lambert (61'), Puncheon (8'), Lallana (89'), Barnard (33', 36')
Richards (3')
Westlake (40'), Deeney (90')
Dec 5, 2009 3pm
Walsall
1-3
Southampton
Byfield (66')
Bradley (39'), Deeney (41'), Weston (69'), Hughes (76')
Lambert (65'), Hammond (38'), Connolly (32')
Harding (63'), Jaidi (78')
rhs 2.0
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