Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 1

Aug 19, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
1 - 0
FC Koln

Malen (88')
Malen (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Schott Mainz 1-6 Dortmund
Saturday, August 12 at 2.30pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

FC Koln

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Osnabruck 1-3 FC Koln
Monday, August 14 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FC Koln

Given that Borussia Dortmund suffered a solitary defeat in 19 home league games last season - scoring 55 goals while conceding just 17 - we expect BVB to kick-start their Bundesliga campaign with a comfortable victory over FC Koln. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.65%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 24.28% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.1%) and 1-0 (6.81%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	FC Koln
54.65% ( -0.17)	21.06% ( 0.08)	24.28% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 64.55% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.43% (

-0.3)

33.57% (

0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.62% (

-0.34)

55.38% (

0.34)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.55% (

-0.15)

12.44% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.63% (

-0.31)

38.37% (

0.31)

FC Koln Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.73% (

-0.1)

26.27% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.61% (

-0.14)

61.38% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 54.65%

FC Koln 24.28%

Draw 21.06%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	FC Koln
2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.54% Total : 54.65%	1-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.06%	1-2 @ 6.09% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.22% Total : 24.28%