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Bundesliga | Gameweek 34
May 27, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Mainz logo

Dortmund
2 - 2
Mainz

Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Augsburg 0-3 Dortmund
Sunday, May 21 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 1-4 Stuttgart
Sunday, May 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Mainz 05

Mainz came out on top against Bayern at the end of last month and they will hope to end their campaign on a high by claiming maximum points on Saturday, spoiling Dortmund's title party in the process. However, we cannot see this rampant BVB side being stopped in their tracks, and while there may be some nervy moments during the contest, Terzic's men should do enough to clinch the club's ninth Bundesliga title. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.82%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.65%) and 3-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
65.82% (-0.078999999999994 -0.08) 18.17% (0.035 0.04) 16.01% (0.046000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 60.81% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.9% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)32.1% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.32% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)53.68% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.86% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)9.14% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.99% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)31.01% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.93% (0.010999999999996 0.01)33.07% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.33% (0.012 0.01)69.67% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 65.82%
    Mainz 05 16.01%
    Draw 18.17%
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 7.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.23% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 6.9% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.57% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 4.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 4.13% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.53% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.98% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.21% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-3 @ 0.93% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 65.82%
1-1 @ 8% (0.019000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.3% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.02% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.56% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 18.17%
1-2 @ 4.43% (0.012 0.01)
0-1 @ 3.34% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.95% (0.002 0)
0-2 @ 1.85% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.63% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 16.01%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Mainz

Borussia Dortmund
Draw
Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
81.2%
Draw
10.1%
Mainz 05
8.7%
69
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Jae-sung (34'), Svensson (67'), Fernandes (76')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
gameweek 33
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern26195275245162
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen26168259332656
3Mainz 05Mainz26136744281645
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt26136754401445
5RB Leipzig2611964133842
6Freiburg2612683638-242
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach26124104340340
8Wolfsburg2610884940938
9Augsburg2610882935-638
10Stuttgart2610794743437
11Borussia DortmundDortmund26105114541435
12Werder Bremen2696114053-1333
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2677122438-1428
14Hoffenheim2668123248-1626
15St Pauli2674152030-1025
16Heidenheim2654173152-2119
17VfL BochumVfL Bochum2646162653-2718
18Holstein Kiel2645173864-2617


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