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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 34
May 27, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
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Dortmund
2 - 2
Mainz

Guerreiro (69'), Sule (90+6')
Guerreiro (40')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Hanche-Olsen (15'), Onisiwo (24')
Fernandes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Last Game: Augsburg 0-3 Dortmund
Sunday, May 21 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 1-4 Stuttgart
Sunday, May 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Mainz 05

 Mainz came out on top against Bayern at the end of last month and they will hope to end their campaign on a high by claiming maximum points on Saturday, spoiling Dortmund's title party in the process. However, we cannot see this rampant BVB side being stopped in their tracks, and while there may be some nervy moments during the contest, Terzic's men should do enough to clinch the club's ninth Bundesliga title. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.82%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.65%) and 3-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
65.82% (-0.078999999999994 -0.08) 18.17% (0.035 0.04) 16.01% (0.046000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 60.81% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.9% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)32.1% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.32% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)53.68% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.86% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)9.14% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.99% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)31.01% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.93% (0.010999999999996 0.01)33.07% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.33% (0.012 0.01)69.67% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 65.82%
    Mainz 05 16.01%
    Draw 18.17%
Borussia DortmundDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 7.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.23% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 6.9% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.57% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 4.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 4.13% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.53% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.19% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.98% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-2 @ 1.21% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-3 @ 0.93% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 65.82%
1-1 @ 8% (0.019000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.3% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.02% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.56% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 18.17%
1-2 @ 4.43% (0.012 0.01)
0-1 @ 3.34% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.95% (0.002 0)
0-2 @ 1.85% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.63% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 16.01%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Mainz

Borussia Dortmund
81.2%
Draw
10.1%
Mainz 05
8.7%
69
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2023 5.30pm
gameweek 17
Mainz
1-2
Dortmund
Jae-sung (2')
Jae-sung (34'), Svensson (67'), Fernandes (76')
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
gameweek 25
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 8
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
gameweek 33
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 16
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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