As was the case during the latter part of last season when they were chasing glory in the Europa League, Frankfurt appear to have checked out of the Bundesliga to some extent, as winning the DFB-Pokal is firmly within their sights.
As such, we expect Dortmund to bounce back with a crucial victory, but it will not be enough to see them return to the top of the table unless Mainz can do them a favour by beating Bayern earlier in the day.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.7%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Eintracht Frankfurt had a probability of 14.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.73%) and 3-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.66%), while for a Eintracht Frankfurt win it was 1-2 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
0.14) 
-0.04) 
