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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 18, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Koln logo

Dortmund
6 - 1
FC Koln

Guerreiro (15'), Haller (17', 69'), Reus (32', 70'), Malen (36')
Dahoud (66')
FT(HT: 4-1)
Selke (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Schalke 2-2 Dortmund
Saturday, March 11 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

FC Koln

All competitions
Last Game: FC Koln 0-2 VfL Bochum
Friday, March 10 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 FC Koln

 With both teams missing several key players due to injury, we do not expect either side to be at their best on Saturday, especially having suffered disappointing results last weekend. However, Dortmund should be able to gain a marginal victory to ensure that they move one point above Bayern prior to their fixture against Leverkusen on Sunday, with Koln needing to pick themselves up after the international break. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.98%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 14.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawFC Koln
67.98% (0.46299999999999 0.46) 17.65% (-0.303 -0.3) 14.37% (-0.157 -0.16)
Both teams to score 58.44% (0.755 0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.81% (1.149 1.15)33.19% (-1.147 -1.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.05% (1.306 1.31)54.94% (-1.306 -1.31)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.05% (0.411 0.41)8.94% (-0.41 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.46% (0.98 0.98)30.53% (-0.978 -0.98)
FC Koln Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.18% (0.543 0.54)35.82% (-0.543 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.4% (0.553 0.55)72.6% (-0.55200000000001 -0.55)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 67.98%
    FC Koln 14.37%
    Draw 17.65%
Borussia DortmundDrawFC Koln
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.072999999999999 -0.07)
2-0 @ 9.34% (-0.211 -0.21)
1-0 @ 7.73% (-0.324 -0.32)
3-1 @ 7.71% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
3-0 @ 7.51% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 4.66% (0.137 0.14)
4-0 @ 4.54% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.96% (0.101 0.1)
4-2 @ 2.39% (0.104 0.1)
5-1 @ 2.25% (0.106 0.11)
5-0 @ 2.19% (0.073 0.07)
5-2 @ 1.15% (0.071 0.07)
6-1 @ 0.91% (0.059 0.06)
Other @ 4.06%
Total : 67.98%
1-1 @ 7.94% (-0.212 -0.21)
2-2 @ 4.92% (0.035 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.2% (-0.198 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.36% (0.054 0.05)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 17.65%
1-2 @ 4.08% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-1 @ 3.29% (-0.151 -0.15)
0-2 @ 1.69% (-0.052 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.68% (0.037 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.4% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 14.37%

How you voted: Dortmund vs FC Koln

Borussia Dortmund
84.8%
Draw
10.5%
FC Koln
4.8%
105
Head to Head
Oct 1, 2022 2.30pm
FC Koln
3-2
Dortmund
Kainz (53'), Tigges (56'), Ljubicic (71')
Hubers (21')
Brandt (31'), Schmitz (78' og.)
Mar 20, 2022 6.30pm
FC Koln
1-1
Dortmund
Andersson (36')
Ozcan (67'), Duda (76')
Wolf (8')
Wolf (30'), Witsel (43'), Can (47')
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
2-0
FC Koln
Hazard (40'), Tigges (64')
Meunier (51'), Bellingham (88')

Schmitz (11'), Hubers (56'), Ozcan (82')
Mar 20, 2021 2.30pm
FC Koln
2-2
Dortmund
Duda (35' pen.), Jakobs (65')
Jakobs (90+2')
Braut Haaland (3', 90')
Bellingham (34')
Nov 28, 2020 2.30pm
Dortmund
1-2
FC Koln
Hazard (74')
Can (54')
Skhiri (9', 60')
Skhiri (29'), Jakobs (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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