LDU Quito are on the verge of a place in the semi-finals of the Copa Sudamericana as they head to Estadio de Morumbi on Thursday for the second leg of their tie with Sao Paulo.
Last week, Los Blancos hung on for a 2-1 win at home, giving them the upper hand in this tie, needing a win or draw to advance.
Match preview
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Once again, Sao Paulo enter a decisive fixture in need of a victory to have a shot at advancing into the next round of this tournament.
It is not the first time Tricolor Paulista have been in this position, in fact they were behind heading home for their decisive match with San Lorenzo in the last 16 this year and also trailed Atletico Goianiense after their opening game in the 2022 Sudamericana semi-finals and both times they found a way to advance.
On both occasions mentioned above, Sao Paulo had the luxury of playing the return match at home, where they have won 10 consecutive encounters in this competition.
Dorival Junior's men are unbeaten in nine of their previous 10 matches played at Estadio de Morumbi across all competitions, posting seven clean sheets over that stretch.
They have only captured one encounter versus a side from Ecuador at this tournament, defeating CS Emelec at home 4-2 in the opening leg of their quarter-final tie in 2014, advancing into the next round by a 6-5 aggregate score in what was the lone time the runners-up at this tournament a season ago have ever eliminated an Ecuadorian opponent at the Sudamericana.
Should Sao Paulo be able to reverse another deficit on Thursday, they would become the first club to advance into the semi-finals of this tournament on consecutive occasions since Colombian side Junior did it in 2017 and 2018.
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Just over two years removed from their previous appearance at the quarter-finals of this competition, Los Merengues find themselves in the same position as in 2021, a goal in front after the opening match.
The last time they were in that position, the club based in Quito were 45 minutes away from making the semi-finals but could not contain the Athletico Paranaense second-half surge, ultimately losing 4-2 as they were eliminated 4-3 on aggregate.
In the previous round of the Sudamericana this year Luis Zubeldia's men were a goal ahead of Chilean side Nublense but lost the second leg once again, only to rescue themselves in the penalty shootout.
The Ecuadorians are unbeaten in their last nine away matches in all competitions and have yet to lose on the road at the Sudamericana this year, with only two goals conceded in four games.
Los Blancos have not given up more than a single goal in any away fixture in this year's competition, and if they can maintain that trend, it would give them a chance at the very least to win in extra-time or a shootout.
If they can clear that final hurdle on Thursday, it would be the first time they make the semi-finals of this tournament since 2011, when Quito finished as runners-up.
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Team News
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Igor Vinicius is still missing from the Sao Paulo lineup because of a sore groin, Patryck and Lucas Beraldo have ankle sprains, Erison and Caio Paulista are dealing with thigh issues, while David has a knee injury.
Junior made three changes to his opening lineup last week from the side that started in the second leg of their Sudamericana clash versus San Lorenzo, with Welington, Gabriel Neves and Lucas Moura coming in for Paulista, Pablo Maia and Luciano.
An 80th-minute goal courtesy of Lucas Moura in the opening leg could prove to be a valuable one should Sao Paulo advance, while Alexandre Pato had their lone strike domestically last weekend when they lost 2-1 to America Mineiro.
We saw two newcomers to the LDU Quito starting 11 against Sao Paulo last week from the side we saw in their second-leg encounter against Nublense, as Facundo Rodriguez and Sebastian Gonzalez replaced Richard Mina and Alexander Alvarado.
Jhojan Julio has scored in two successive Sudamericana fixtures, while Renato Ibarra picked up his first of the tournament last week, which stood up as the winner.
Julio also found the mark in their previous league encounter on Sunday, while Lisandro Alzugaray had a brace when they defeated Gualaceo 3-1 away from home.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Rafinha, Arboleda, Franco, Welington; Neves, Alisson; Araujo, Moura, J. Rodriguez; Calleri
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Dominguez; Quintero, Ade, F. Rodriguez, Quinonez; Zambrano, Piovi; Ibarra, Gonzalez, Julio; Alzugaray
We say: Sao Paulo 1-0 LDU Quito (Sao Paulo advances on penalties)
They have done it before and there is no reason to suggest that Sao Paulo cannot turn the tables in their favour once again come Thursday.
While we expect a close match, we also believe that as the pressure begins to mount the experience of the Brazilians in these situations will give them a psychological edge.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
