Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18
Jan 30, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Guimaraes2 - 1Chaves
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Guimaraes 0-1 Porto
Saturday, January 21 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, January 21 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Goals
for
for
15
Last Game: Boavista 1-1 Chaves
Monday, January 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Monday, January 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-1 Chaves
It would not be too much of a surprise if Chaves record a fourth consecutive 1-1 draw in this one given how close the sides are in the table and in similar ropey form. Guimaraes have won the last three head-to-heads though, and will hope that can give them the edge. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Chaves |
44.62% ( 0.09) | 27.32% ( -0.04) | 28.06% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 47.42% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
