Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.