Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
39.49% ( -0) | 28.42% ( 0) | 32.09% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 46.07% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.84% ( -0.01) | 60.16% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.64% ( -0) | 80.36% ( 0.01) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.31% ( -0.01) | 29.69% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.25% ( -0.01) | 65.75% ( 0.01) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.52% ( 0) | 34.48% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.81% ( -0) | 71.19% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
1-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.55% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.25% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.99% 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.52% Total : 39.49% | 1-1 @ 13.23% 0-0 @ 10.23% 2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0) Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.41% | 0-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.05% 0-2 @ 5.8% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.5% 0-3 @ 2.06% 2-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.25% Total : 32.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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