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Preview: Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian Open semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Novak Djokovic produced a vintage performance to secure a comeback quarter-final success over Carlos Alcaraz to set up a mouthwatering semi-final tussle with Alexander Zverev.

Although the German superstar is a 23-time titlist, a Grand Slam has eluded the 27-year-old, but he must overcome the sport's greatest player and 50-time semi-finalist in the leading events to have another shot at fulfilling his Majors dream.


Match preview

Novak Djokovic reacts at the Australian Open on January 21, 2025© Imago

Apart from becoming the first player since Mikael Ymer at the 2021 Australian Open second round to defeat Alcaraz after the Spaniard claimed the opening set, Djokovic sealed his 50th Grand Slam semi-final with a stunning 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 triumph over the Career Grand Slam-chasing sensation.

Even at 37, the 24-time Majors champion remains competitive against the best players on the ATP Tour, evidenced by his battling qualities and top-shelf execution to reel the 21-year-old third seed in and secure a four-set triumph.

Tuesday's success continues Djokovic's run of making the semi-final or final in his last six appearances in the main draw in Australia, with a fourth-round 2018 exit preceding the ongoing run.

Defeating Alcaraz in this year's quarter-final sees the 24-time champion improve his win percentage Down Under to 91.7%, emulating Jimmy Connors's win rate at the opening Slam of the year to put him two more victories from a historic crown.

Despite starting the opening week slowly against Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria, the 10-time champion is now dialled in and giving little away, sending ominous signs to everyone left in the men's draw.

Up next for the 24-time Grand Slam victor is a motivated opponent seeking his first Majors victory after notching 23 titles, including two ATP Finals, seven ATP 1000 crowns and an Olympic gold medal.

Alexander Zverev reacts at the Australian Open on January 21, 2025© Imago

Zverev had barely broken a sweat all tournament before facing American Tommy Paul in the last eight, and he secured progress in four sets, though the quarter-final could have gone awry had the United States player successfully served out sets one and two.

While Paul went on to claim the third, the 27-year-old German superstar's two-set advantage proved unassailable for the 12th seed in Tuesday's 7-6(1), 7-6(0), 2-6, 6-1 victory for a third semi-final in Melbourne and ninth overall.

Only the German's last-four opponent has reached more semis at the Slams than the 23-time titlist since 2020, with Djokovic's 13 outdoing Zverev's nine, while Daniil Medvedev (eight) completes the top three.

Such statistics underline the second seed's consistency through the years, though victory at the Majors has so far been elusive for the two-time Grand Slam finalist.

Back in the semis this year, 12 months after exiting at this stage to Medvedev, Zverev has improved to 30-9 Down Under to come within two more victories of what he has yearned for, but he must overcome the acid test of facing Djokovic at the Serbian's favourite Slam.


Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Nishesh Basavareddy 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-2
Second round: vs. Jaime Faria 6-1 6-7[4] 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Tomas Machac 6-1 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Jiri Lehecka 6-3 6-4 7-6[4]
Quarter-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4

Alexander Zverev:

First round: vs. Lucas Pouille 6-4 6-4 6-4
Second round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-1 6-4 6-1
Third round: vs. Jacob Fearnley 6-3 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Ugo Humbert 6-1 2-6 6-3 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Tommy Paul 7-6[1] 7-6[0] 2-6 6-1


Head To Head

Cincinnati Masters (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 7-6(5) 7-5

ATP Finals (2021) - Semi-final: Zverev 7-6(4) 4-6 6-3

US Open (2021) - Semi-final: Djokovic 4-6 6-2 6-4 4-6 6-2

Tokyo Olympics (2021) - Semi-final: Zverev 1-6 6-3 6-1

ATP Cup (2021) - Round Robin: Djokovic 6-7(3) 6-2 7-5

Australian Open (2021) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 6-7(6) 6-2 6-4 7-6(6)

ATP Finals (2020) - Round Robin: Djokovic 6-3 7-6(4)

Roland Garros (2019) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 7-5 6-2 6-2

ATP Finals (2018) - Final: Zverev 6-4 6-3

ATP Finals (2018) - Round Robin: Djokovic 6-4 6-1

Shanghai Masters (2018) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-2 6-1

Rome Masters (2017) - Stage: Zverev 6-4 6-3

Although Zverev won their first meeting on the clay courts in Rome eight years back, Djokovic has dominated this rivalry to lead their head-to-head 8-4.

While the last four matches have seen both men secure two wins each, the Serbian has never been defeated by Zverev at a Grand Slam in three match-ups: Roland Garros quarters in 2019, the 2021 Aussie Open last eight and the US Open semis five-setter the same year.

Strikingly, the German has a 4-16 career record against top-10 players, highlighting his broader limitations against the top-ranked players, even if his four victories have been in the recent nine against such opponents after losing 11 consecutive meetings before beating Alcaraz at Roland Garros in 2022.

On the contrary, Djokovic enters the semi-final with a recent 9-3 win-loss record against the elite at Slams (70-33 overall), with his three losses in that period coming in both Wimbledon finals against Alcaraz and last year's semis at the hands of Jannik Sinner.


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We say: Djokovic to win in four sets

It is hard to argue against Djokovic returning to the championship match to compete for an 11th Aussie Open crown and 25th Grand Slam title.

While Zverev's consistency makes him a threatening opponent, the high-level tennis that the Serbian superstar has played in the last three rounds, especially in defeating Alcaraz, makes him the favourite to secure another Slam victory over the German and advance to Sunday's title match.

He is dialled in. He is in lockdown mode. He is inevitable.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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Novak Djokovic reacts at the Australian Open on January 21, 2025
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