Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for AVS had a probability of 18.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.55%) and 1-2 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for an AVS win it was 1-0 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
Result | ||
AVS | Draw | Famalicao |
18.53% ( -0.46) | 24.58% ( -0.2) | 56.9% ( 0.66) |
Both teams to score 44.79% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.26% ( 0.15) | 55.74% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.13% ( 0.13) | 76.88% ( -0.12) |
AVS Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.64% ( -0.45) | 44.36% ( 0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.58% ( -0.37) | 80.42% ( 0.37) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.5% ( 0.32) | 19.5% ( -0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.62% ( 0.51) | 51.38% ( -0.51) |
Score Analysis |
AVS | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 4.67% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.66% Total : 18.53% | 1-1 @ 11.49% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.61% Total : 24.57% | 0-1 @ 14.14% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 11.55% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 9.4% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 6.3% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 5.12% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 2.57% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0) Other @ 3.64% Total : 56.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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