Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 28.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
28.57% ( -0.87) | 25.38% ( -0.15) | 46.05% ( 1.02) |
Both teams to score 53.54% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.15% ( 0.17) | 49.85% ( -0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.16% ( 0.16) | 71.84% ( -0.16) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.34% ( -0.55) | 31.66% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.92% ( -0.63) | 68.08% ( 0.63) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.35% ( 0.54) | 21.65% ( -0.54) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.23% ( 0.81) | 54.77% ( -0.81) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
1-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 6.94% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.79% Total : 28.57% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 9.23% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 4.71% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 4.09% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.39% Total : 46.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 15 |
2 | Porto | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
4 | Benfica | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
5 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
7 | Braga | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
9 | AVS | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
11 | Casa Pia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 5 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
15 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
17 | Estrela Amadora | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |