MX23RW : Saturday, October 5 11:26:35| >> :120:39249:39249:
Rugby Championship | Group Stage
Sep 7, 2024 at 4pm UK
 
South Africa
18-12
New Zealand

Preview: South Africa vs. New Zealand - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Rugby Championship clash between South Africa and New Zealand, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

South Africa will look to extend their lead atop the 2024 Rugby Championship leaderboard when they lock horns against the All Blacks for the final time this year in Cape Town on Saturday, September 7.

The Springboks enter round four of the competition with a perfect record and 14 points to their name, while the All Blacks are in second place and currently trail the world champions by eight points.


Match preview

Springboks players celebrate after winning The Rugby Championship match on August 31, 2024© Imago

Last week, we were treated to one of the best matches of Test rugby in recent memory, as these two titans of the sport traded blows in a game that ended with South Africa pulling off an incredible comeback in front of a packed house at Ellis Park Stadium.

Down by 10 points with under 20 minutes remaining, the Springboks rallied to a 31-27 victory, extending their lead at the summit of the table and putting the All Blacks' hopes of a fifth consecutive Rugby Championship title in serious jeopardy.

While the Boks came away with the points in the end, it was clear that the Green and Gold were some way from their best throughout the match, as sloppy set-pieces and poor distribution at break-downs saw the side concede points far too easily.

However, the much-spoken-about Bomb Squad proved to be a crucial factor yet again for Rassie Erasmus, with the rabid and rambunctious Kwagga Smith providing the spark that ignited the Boks' comeback, winning two crucial turnovers and battling for every scrap as though his life depended on it.

Heading to the Cape Town Test, South Africa can put the title race to bed with a bonus point victory, provided they prevent New Zealand from earning two bonus points as they did last week up in Johannesburg, but it would take a brave soul to write off the All Blacks too early in this one.

New Zealand Damian McKenzie lines up a kick on August 8, 2024© Imago

Taking nothing away from South Africa's performance in the final quarter of last week's epic, New Zealand did themselves no favours in the closing stages, as team captain Scott Barrett summed up perfectly in his post-match interview, where he conceded that his side only played for 62 minutes in an 80-minute match.

The All Blacks' inability to finish matches strongly is arguably becoming a bit of a theme in 2024, as the side also struggled in the latter stages against Argentina during their shock defeat over the opening weekend in Wellington.

Consequently, head coach Scott Robertson has taken steps to try to rectify their late-game struggles, dropping Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara to the bench for this week's match with the head coach explaining that the reason for the decision is that he wants the pair to 'finish the job' for his side.

However, while the drop-off in New Zealand's performance in the final 20 minutes was evident, the result could easily have still gone their way had the decision around the grounding of Bongi Mbonambi's try gone in their favour earlier in the match.

Still, credit to the All Blacks for not using that controversial decision as the reason for the loss, and rest assured they will arrive on the West Coast of Southern Africa ready to right their wrongs and keep the competition alive.

South Africa Rugby Championship form:

  • W
  • W
  • W

South Africa form (all competitions):

  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W


New Zealand Rugby Championship form:

  • L
  • W
  • L

New Zealand form (all competitions):

  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

South Africa's Handre Pollard scores a conversion kick on October 21, 2023© Reuters

Erasmus seems to be aiming to leave nothing to chance here, recalling experience to the squad, with the likes of Handre Pollard and Willie Le Roux set to start the match as part of seven changes from last week's victory in place of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Aphelele Fassi respectively.

Captain Siya Kolisi has recovered from a facial injury sustained at Ellis Park and will feature this weekend alongside the colossus that is Pieter-Steph du Toit, who switches back from lock to his usual position in the second row.

As mentioned, Robinson has dropped Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara from the starting 15 with Cortez Ratima and Will Jordan being brought into the squad in their place.

The other two changes to the All Blacks team were enforced ones due to injury, with Ethan Blackadder and Caleb Clarke both set to sit this one out, while Wallace Sititi will come into the pack to partner up with Sam Cane and Ardie Savea.


South Africa starting lineup: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche

Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Kwagga Smith, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Jaden Hendrikse, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Lukhanyo Am

New Zealand starting lineup: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele'a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa'i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barret


SM words green background

We say: South Africa 29-26 New Zealand

As is usually the case when these Southern Hemisphere powerhouses collide, we are expecting another nail-biter down in Cape Town this weekend. However, with the home advantage and momentum from last week's victory, we feel the South Africans will be able to secure another narrow victory over their old foe.

No Data Analysis info



ID:552270:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11283:

Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Game History

How you voted: South Africa vs New Zealand

South Africa
67.6%
Draw
5.9%
New Zealand
26.5%
34
Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
South Africa's Siya Kolisi lifts The Webb Ellis Cup as they celebrate winning the World Cup final on October 28, 2023
Read Next:
Top 100 sporting moments of 2023: 10-1
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!