Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for DC United had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.