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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 49.34%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 26.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.83%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Chesterfield |
26.98% ( 1.97) | 23.67% ( 0.47) | 49.34% ( -2.43) |
Both teams to score 57.99% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.56% ( -0.47) | 43.44% ( 0.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.17% ( -0.46) | 65.83% ( 0.46) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.49% ( 1.27) | 29.51% ( -1.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.47% ( 1.52) | 65.53% ( -1.52) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.27% ( -1.08) | 17.72% ( 1.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.61% ( -1.9) | 48.39% ( 1.9) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Chesterfield |
2-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.36) 1-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.34) 3-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.24) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.19) Other @ 3.27% Total : 26.98% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.67% | 1-2 @ 9.56% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.41) 1-3 @ 5.51% ( -0.29) 0-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.41) 2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.22) 0-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.25) 2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.73% Total : 49.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 59 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 52 |
3 | Notts County | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 50 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 48 |
6 | Port Vale | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 48 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 47 |
8 | Salford City | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 44 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 42 |
10 | Chesterfield | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 39 |
11 | MK Dons | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 38 |
12 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 37 |
14 | Swindon TownSwindon | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 37 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 35 | 2 | 36 |
16 | Bromley | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 35 |
17 | Gillingham | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 32 |
18 | BarrowBarrow | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 30 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 30 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 29 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 26 |
23 | Morecambe | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 23 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 21 |
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