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AFC Wimbledon
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Chesterfield
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Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Chesterfield
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Technique Stadium
Notts County

Chesterfield
2 - 2
Notts County

Madden (6'), Grigg (74')
Metcalfe (64'), Banks (90'), Naylor (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Jatta (14'), McGoldrick (90+4')
Palmer (55'), Macarai (64'), Crowley (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Chesterfield and Notts County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chesterfield 2-2 Walsall
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Chesterfield 1-1 Notts County

Considering Chesterfield have drawn four of their six matches at home this season, it is difficult to see them losing on Saturday. However, the hosts are yet to keep a clean sheet at SMH Group Stadium, and Notts County will no doubt get chances of their own in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 50.49%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
ChesterfieldDrawNotts County
50.49% (-0.691 -0.69) 22.6% (0.175 0.18) 26.9% (0.514 0.51)
Both teams to score 61.69% (-0.144 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.47% (-0.399 -0.4)38.52% (0.398 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.18% (-0.425 -0.42)60.82% (0.422 0.42)
Chesterfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.52% (-0.38200000000001 -0.38)15.48% (0.379 0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.64% (-0.714 -0.71)44.36% (0.713 0.71)
Notts County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.99% (0.15700000000001 0.16)27.01% (-0.159 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.63% (0.209 0.21)62.36% (-0.21 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Chesterfield 50.49%
    Notts County 26.9%
    Draw 22.6%
ChesterfieldDrawNotts County
2-1 @ 9.52% (-0.029000000000002 -0.03)
1-0 @ 7.8% (0.045 0.04)
2-0 @ 7.28% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-1 @ 5.92% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-0 @ 4.53% (-0.093999999999999 -0.09)
3-2 @ 3.88% (-0.046 -0.05)
4-1 @ 2.76% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-0 @ 2.11% (-0.073 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.81% (-0.046 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.03% (-0.045 -0.05)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 50.49%
1-1 @ 10.21% (0.11 0.11)
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.18% (0.078 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.69% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.6%
1-2 @ 6.68% (0.098 0.1)
0-1 @ 5.47% (0.127 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.58% (0.099 0.1)
1-3 @ 2.92% (0.056 0.06)
2-3 @ 2.72% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.56% (0.05 0.05)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 26.9%

How you voted: Chesterfield vs Notts County

Chesterfield
47.2%
Draw
25.0%
Notts County
27.8%
36
Head to Head
May 13, 2023 3.30pm
Chesterfield
2-2
Notts County
(Aggregate 2-2 | Notts County win 4-3 on penalties)
Dallas (6' pen.), Dobra (93')
Oldaker (57'), King (102'), Grimes (114')
Bostock (88'), Rodrigues (108')
Bostock (38'), Jones (96'), Mair (123')
Feb 11, 2023 5.20pm
Aug 20, 2022 5.20pm
Gameweek 4
Notts County
2-2
Chesterfield
Langstaff (60', 63')
O'Brien (37'), Rodrigues (64')
Mandeville (16'), Asante (55')
King (81'), (90+6')
Mar 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 37
Notts County
1-1
Chesterfield
Wootton (45+2' pen.)
Vincent (39'), Kelly-Evans (64'), Rawlinson (84')
Whittle (13')
King (55'), Weston (58'), Quigley (84')
Mar 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Chesterfield
3-1
Notts County
Maguire (60', 86'), Asante (90' pen.)
Whittle (7'), Kellerman (41'), Khan (89'), Miller (90+4')
Sam (40')
Cameron (62')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall20134337191843
2Port Vale2110742619737
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster2110653124736
4Crewe AlexandraCrewe209832416835
5Chesterfield2197536231334
6AFC Wimbledon20103731171433
7Notts County208752821731
8Grimsby Town21101102833-531
9MK Dons199373326730
10Gillingham209382218430
11Salford City208662219330
12Bradford CityBradford207762422228
13Bromley206952523227
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham217682930-127
15BarrowBarrow207582018226
16Newport CountyNewport207582731-426
17Colchester UnitedColchester2041152322123
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood195862425-123
19Tranmere RoversTranmere205691529-1421
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2163121732-1521
21Swindon TownSwindon2147102635-919
22Accrington StanleyAccrington204792636-1019
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2036111532-1715
24Morecambe2135131938-1914


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