Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.14%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 2-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Notts County in this match.