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Championship header 2

League One
Exeter City
League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Derby logo

Exeter
0 - 3
Derby


Aitchison (49'), Carroll (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bird (24'), Mendez-Laing (52'), Barkhuizen (62')
Mendez-Laing (26'), Adams (43'), Cashin (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Wigan 1-2 Exeter
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

We said: Exeter City 0-2 Derby County

 Promotion-chasing Derby are set to go up against an in-form Exeter side, but after winning their last two head-to-head meetings, we think that the Rams will do enough to claim all three points on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
19.84% (0.184 0.18) 23% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07) 57.16% (-0.10400000000001 -0.1)
Both teams to score 51.48% (0.527 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.08% (0.554 0.55)47.93% (-0.55 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.9% (0.508 0.51)70.1% (-0.503 -0.5)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.67% (0.517 0.52)38.33% (-0.511 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.91% (0.492 0.49)75.09% (-0.486 -0.49)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.48% (0.16200000000001 0.16)16.53% (-0.157 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.73% (0.28899999999999 0.29)46.27% (-0.284 -0.28)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 19.84%
    Derby County 57.15%
    Draw 22.99%
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.07% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-1 @ 5.24% (0.054 0.05)
2-0 @ 2.91% (0.015 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.68% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.51% (0.044 0.04)
3-0 @ 0.93% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 19.84%
1-1 @ 10.93% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 6.33% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.073 0.07)
3-3 @ 0.91% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.99%
0-1 @ 11.4% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 10.26% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 9.84% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 6.16% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 5.91% (0.042 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.83% (0.059 0.06)
0-4 @ 2.77% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.66% (0.033 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.28% (0.033 0.03)
0-5 @ 1% (0.003 0)
1-5 @ 0.96% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 57.15%

How you voted: Exeter vs Derby

Exeter City
15.8%
Draw
13.2%
Derby County
71.1%
38
Head to Head
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Derby
2-0
Exeter
Mendez-Laing (30'), Washington (79')
Hourihane (34'), Sibley (55')

Watts (62')
> Preview
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 43
Exeter
1-2
Derby
Sparkes (78')
McGoldrick (52', 76')
> Preview
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
0-0
Exeter
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley218672930-130
10Mansfield TownMansfield198472322128
11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
12Blackpool207672931-227
13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
17Wigan AthleticWigan206681918124
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham196581921-223
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton2156102134-1321
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
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24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2033142141-2012
> League One Full Table


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