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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
49.79% ( -0) | 23.51% ( 0.01) | 26.7% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 58.31% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.09% ( -0.05) | 42.91% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.69% ( -0.05) | 65.31% ( 0.05) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.64% ( -0.02) | 17.36% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.25% ( -0.03) | 47.75% ( 0.03) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.55% ( -0.03) | 29.45% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.55% ( -0.04) | 65.45% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
2-1 @ 9.58% 1-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.42% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2% 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 3.89% Total : 49.79% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.5% | 1-2 @ 6.69% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 3.28% Total : 26.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 42 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 31 |
7 | Reading | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
9 | Barnsley | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 30 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | Blackpool | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 27 |
14 | Stevenage | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 26 |
15 | Leyton Orient | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 |
16 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 23 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 12 |
> League One Full Table |