Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Girona had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
46.37% ( -0.04) | 24.58% ( 0.01) | 29.05% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 56.5% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.88% ( -0.04) | 46.12% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.58% ( -0.04) | 68.42% ( 0.04) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.02% ( -0.03) | 19.98% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.85% ( -0.05) | 52.15% ( 0.06) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.6% ( -0) | 29.4% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.61% ( -0) | 65.38% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
1-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.62% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.09% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.02% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 46.37% | 1-1 @ 11.57% 0-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.57% | 0-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.09% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0) Other @ 3.35% Total : 29.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 24 |
2 | Real Madrid | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Villarreal | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
5 | Osasuna | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 14 |
7 | Mallorca | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
8 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
9 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Real BetisBetis | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
11 | GironaGirona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
12 | Sevilla | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
13 | AlavesAlaves | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
14 | Espanyol | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
15 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
16 | Getafe | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
17 | Leganes | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 8 |
18 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 5 |
20 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
> La Liga Full Table |