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La Liga | Gameweek 33
Apr 27, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
3 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

De Paul (15'), Correa (52'), Simon (80' og.)
De Paul (5'), Hermoso (90+3'), Griezmann (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Williams (45')
Sancet (59'), Paredes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic really have to avoid defeat here if they are to stay in the top-four race, but it will be difficult considering Atletico's excellent home record this season. We were close to backing a narrow success for Simeone's side but have ultimately settled on a 1-1 draw, which would not be a bad result for either side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
43.85% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03) 25.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 30.49% (0.035999999999998 0.04)
Both teams to score 53.76% (0.034000000000006 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.93% (0.036000000000001 0.04)50.07% (-0.032999999999994 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.95% (0.032 0.03)72.04% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.24% (0.0049999999999955 0)22.76% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)56.44% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.6% (0.042999999999992 0.04)30.4% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.4% (0.051000000000002 0.05)66.6% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 43.85%
    Athletic Bilbao 30.49%
    Draw 25.66%
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.03% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 7.58% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.45% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.74% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.65% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 43.85%
1-1 @ 12.19%
0-0 @ 6.92% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.66%
0-1 @ 8.24% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.9% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 30.49%

How you voted: Atletico vs Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid
65.2%
Draw
17.4%
Athletic Bilbao
17.4%
92
Head to Head
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
Feb 7, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Atletico
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
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5pm
 
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8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
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Saturday, June 29
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain22006
2 Italy Italy21013
3 Albania national flag Albania20111
4 Croatia Croatia20111

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands21104
2 France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania21013
2 Belgium Belgium21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Ukraine Ukraine21013

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal22006
2 Turkey Turkey21013
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic20111
4 Georgia Georgia20111


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